Showing posts with label election fraud. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election fraud. Show all posts

Monday, November 12, 2012

I AM REPOSTING MICHAEL GREEN'S INSIGHTFUL ANSWER TO RICHARD CHARNIN'S QUESTION: WHY DIDN'T CNN UPDATE ITS ELECTION WEBSITE TO INCLUDE THE 4.15 MILLION VOTES THAT CAME IN AFTER ROMNEY CONCEDED?



I am reposting Richard Charnin’s good analysis of the late-counted votes, but with enlarged fonts and separated line to make it readable.  Richard’s point is simple but should be made explicitly.  After Romney threw in the towel and there was no longer any active motivation to rig the remaining vote count, that remaining vote count gives us a better estimate and view of the actual voting distribution; this in turns gives us an excellent estimate of the extent of the routine fraud, notwithstanding the sampling bias (hah!) in the late-counted votes.  Richard asks why CNN has not updated its figures.  The better question is why CNN, the mainstream media generally, and the Obama DOJ does not leap to attention and bring the brigands to justice.  The answer is that the fraud that Richard and others have uncovered is and remains in the realm of state crimes, i.e., crimes done by elements of the rulings class with ties to the intelligence and finance community, often using their resources to organize lower level troops at the grounds level, that are too deep and long-standing to challenge without an overt war within the ruling class that risks involving the people directly, a contingency that all parties agree is to be avoided at all costs.  The problem is not and has never been that the upper levels of power of the "Democratic" party do not know what is happening; they know very well.  But their means of exercising their power, and exercise it they have been doing, avoid democratic process and participation at all costs.

Regards,  Michael Green



The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.55 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin, exactly 1.0 million higher. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes?

Obama had 63.1% of the final 4.15 million votes. He had 52.9% of the full 131 million recorded.

What is the MoE for a 4 million polling sample? {Hint: just about zero.}


Blogger's clarification: MoE stands for Margin of Error.. Think about this!  At the end of a proof, the mathematician writes "Q.E.D."


Sent: Sunday, November 11, 2012 12:03 PM
Subject: [ei] Re: The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.55 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin, exactly 1.0 million higher. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes?
Obama had 63.1% of the final 4.15 million votes. He had 52.9% of the full 131 million recorded.
What is the MoE for a 4 million polling sample?
On Sunday, November 11, 2012 2:34:38 PM UTC-5, Richard Charnin wrote:
The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.55 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin, exactly 1.0 million higher. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes?

On Saturday, November 10, 2012 12:12:28 PM UTC-5, Richard Charnin wrote:
The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?


Richard Charnin
Nov. 10, 2012

In the 2000, 2004, and 2008 elections, the late votes recorded after Election Day showed a dramatic increase in Democratic vote shares. 

2000- 102.6 million votes recorded on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%. 
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004- 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%. 
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.

2008- 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%. 
Obama won the 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5%.

provides updated state votes which are included in the https://docs.google.com/ spreadsheet/ccc?key= 0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRN DlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=29">2012 Forecasting model.
I am calculating the incremental changes in the vote count on a  daily basis. Check the updates right here.

Nov.8 - Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (117.45 million recorded votes)
Nov.9 - he led by 50.43-47.97% (119.58 million recorded)
Nov.10- he led by 50.51-47.87% (122.20 million recorded)

Obama leads by 54.65-42.96% in the 4.75 million late votes.

The True Vote Model indicated that he had an approximate 55% True Vote. A coincidence? 

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted exit polls -  a very big exit poll with millions of respondents who told the pollster exactly how they voted. Of course, we won't see the unadjusted exit polls until years later. And 19 states were not even exit polled this time. All we have is the National Exit Pol which is always forced to match the recorded vote. It shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. But all the demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. I included them in the 2012 Presidential True Vote /Election Fraud Forecast Model in which I calculated total vote shares.

As is the case in every presidential election since 1988, the Democrat Obama did much better than the recorded vote. If they are to be believed, the Late Votes are  another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Let’s see what happens as the recorded votes continue to come in.

Why would the late votes always show an increase in the Democratic vote share?

- Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes? Plausible.
- Could it be that the late votes are paper ballots (provisionals, absentees) and not from DREs? Absolutely. 
- Could it be that the late votes are coming in from Democratic strongholds? Maybe some, but surely not all.

You decide.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

KARL ROVE'S ELECTION-STEALING WEB EXPOSED AT NATIONAL PRESS CLUB CONFERENCE!

BLOGGER'S NOTE: I MET CLIFF ARNEBECK AT THE NATIONAL ELECTION REFORM CONFERENCE IN NASHVILLE EARLY IN 2005, AND I FIRST MET JIM MARCH WHEN HE WAS WORKING WITH JOHN BRAKEY IN TUCSON IN THAT TIME PERIOD. I MET JIM AND JOHN AGAIN LAST WEEK AT A COURT HEARING WHEREIN JIM AND ELEVEN OTHER CITIZENS REPRESENTING THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF U.S. POLITICAL PARTIES WERE DEMANDING THE RIGHT TO AUDIT TODAY'S ELECTION IN PIMA COUNTY, ARIZONA. THOUGH NOT NOTED IN THE TEXT BELOW, JILL SIMPSON -- WHO YOU WILL MEET IN THE VIDEO -- WAS A FORMER ROVE OPERATIVE. OTHERWISE APROPOS, I HAVE LONG AGO ADDED TO MY BLOG (RIGHT HAND COLUMN) A PARDON-DON-SIEGELMAN WIDGET (PLEASE SIGN IT).




National Press Club main press conference

http://youtu.be/pikI5xrdE8c

Published on Oct 28, 2012 by Jim March 

This press release covers issues related to election fraud and the political misuse of our so-called "justice" system. The issues are intertwined! In the Don Siegelman case, he was subjected to election fraud by Rove's operation and when that wasn't enough to make him quit politics they falsely jailed him. This presentation includes a complete guide to the internetworked companies, people and organizations that make up Karl Rove's empire of election fraud. 

The "road map" to Rove's empire is a PDF file available here: 

http://tinyurl.com/roveroadmap 

The press release for this event is a one-page technical introduction to the core issues: 

http://tinyurl.com/rovepressrelease 

The link to the petition to free Don Seigelman via a pardon by Obama is located at: 

http://free-don.org 

There is also a selection of exit-poll related statistics at: 

http://richardcharnin.com

NOTE: the main camera had issues. This was recorded with a head-mounted Looxie2 camera from the audience that we used as backup. There are brief audio glitches caused by unknown interference at the press club, probably a sat uplink somewhere. 

Monday, October 29, 2012

THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA AS THE PROPAGANDA ARM OF THE ELECTION STEALERS








  SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2012
 
Local Daily Extolls the Virtues of Pima County in Apologetic Report of Lawsuit Aimed at Keeping Pima County from Breaking Laws

J.T. Waldron


When propaganda gets this obvious, we ultimately choose not to run away from it and prefer not to rely on the hopes that people will ignore it.
It is far more productive to give it its due and shed light on it.
The Arizona Daily Star's sunday edition contains the article with a peculiar title that is self evident as propaganda:



What is the main, bulkier part of the title? You guessed it:

Pima Sees Gains in Election Security

What was the actual current news to be reported in the story?

The lawsuit by citizens to compel Pima County to follow existing election laws.

What's the damage?

The Arizona Daily Star has over 364,000 readers for its Sunday edition, which is about a third of the population of Pima County being falsely assured about "Elections Security".


Read more...


Saturday, October 27, 2012

BREAKING: PIMA COUNTY CITIZENS OF ALL POLITICAL STRIPES (INCLUDING PROMINENT REPUBLICANS!) SUE THE COUNTY TO ALLOW SEVERAL RANDOMLY SELECTED PRECINCTS' PAPER BALLOTS TO BE HAND COUNTED AFTER THE OFFICIAL RESULTS ARE POSTED "TO MAKE SURE THAT NOBODY CHEATS."

Blogger's Note: My yesterday's post seems to imply that "Republicans" are stealing our elections, whereas the truth of the matter is that elections are being stolen by criminals for illicit purposes having nothing to do with their political party affiliations. Case in point: John Brakey and I are both progressive Democrats and cofounders in Tucson of AUDIT-AZ (Americans United for Democracy, Integrity and Transparency in Elections), and in the video below you will hear Republican Brad Roach, former candidate for Pima County Attorney, remark on how much he learned from AUDIT-AZ. Although at opposite ends of the Democrat-Republican political scale, John and Brad are great friends in their quest to restore honest elections in Arizona (see photograph below)! 







FRIDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2012                                                                                  Original here

Arizona Citizens' Election Integrity Lawsuit Explained by Attorney Brad Roach and Republican Candidate Bill Beard


From left to right:  Attorney Brad Roach,  John Brakey,
Bill Beard, Chris DeSimone
KVOA Wakeup Tucson at 7:00 AM Mountain Time on 1030 AM radio Stay tuned for the final clip containing Pima County shill Benny White refusing to participate in the Elections Integrity Board's emergency meeting scheduled to discuss former NSA employee Mickey Duniho's analysis of past elections. White mistakenly assumed that the meeting was going to discuss the pending lawsuit requiring Pima County to follow existing election laws. One can assume he is also mistaken in thinking he can be a co-defendant in that case because he ultimately would be acting against significant members within Pima County's Republican Party who are plaintiffs in the lawsuit. 


NSA Analyst Mickey Duniho's presentation to the Pima County's Election Integrity Board will be posted later this evening.

......

Pima commission to discuss chance of election fraud in larger precincts



Arizona Daily Star
   
                                                                                         Original here
Carli Brosseau


The Pima County Election Integrity Commission is holding a special meeting today to talk about whether one member's statistical analysis of votes in recent elections shows evidence of fraud.

Under the group's bylaws, an emergency meeting can be held if at least five of the nine members call for one.

Michael "Mickey" Duniho
His presentation to the Election Integrity Board
will be posted on The Intercept today.
Mickey Duniho, a retired National Security Agency computer programmer, requested the meeting two days ago after he began plotting cumulative votes by precinct and noticing that outcomes seemed to differ by precinct size.
He was replicating earlier studies done by California researchers Francois Choquette and James Johnson, an aerospace engineer and a financial analyst. The researchers argue that their analysis of the recent Republican primary shows Mitt Romney making strange vote gains in most states' large precincts.
Duniho - formerly a Republican election observer in Maryland, a supporter of Democrat-backed lawsuits against Pima County's Elections Department and now a registered independent - said that his results seem to parallel those of Choquette and Johnson, who tried to account for their findings using demographics.
He is now collecting demographic data by precinct to try to explain his results with other factors, such as whether a precinct is rural or the affluence of the precinct's residents.

Duniho suspects that the patterns he found show a 10 percent flip of votes in favor of the Republican candidate in the 2010 race between Raúl Grijalva and Ruth McClung and the race between Gabrielle Giffords and Jesse Kelly the same year, as well as votes switched to benefit Romney in the Republican primary.

"The problem is figuring out what the statistical evidence does mean," Duniho said. "The computer is a black box. It is very easy for the guy who wrote the program to do just about anything."

At today's meeting, Duniho hopes to persuade the county Elections Department to sort early ballots by precinct before doing the hand-count audit required by law.

He has been advocating for that sorting, as well as for upping the percentage of ballots hand-counted, for about six years, arguing that his method boosts the chances of revealing fraud if it were to occur.

By law, Arizona counties must do a hand-count audit of 1 percent of early ballots and 2 percent of precincts in at least one federal and one state race. Pima County already audits more than required - 4 percent of precinct-cast ballots and 1 percent of early ballots. No local races are audited.

Some of the commission's members have argued strongly against holding the meeting and worry that it could unnecesarily increase fears about the vote count.

Benny White, a Republican election observer, responded to news of the meeting request with a sharply worded email.

"After reviewing the academic research involved with the links in the message, I conclude that the allegations being made are absolute nonsense," he wrote. "These academics don't take into account the fact that election results are the response by voters to campaigns and candidates. …

"I think there is a greater probability that fluctuations in the electrical voltage of the lines serving the election department have more to do with variations in election results than these alleged anomalies."

The county's technical consultant on election matters, John Moffatt, agrees that the data do not seem to show a vote flip in Pima County, but he does think the California researchers may be on to something with their findings in some other states. 

Pima County employee John Moffatt speaks of
"witch hunts" in the past, but is responsible
for the incoherent rationale that required a suit
to obtain electronic public records.
"It's worth paying attention to, and we took it seriously," he said. "My personal opinion is that it's another witch hunt, but our responsibility is to check this stuff out, not just blow it off."

He adamantly rejects allegations that county elections staff somehow tampered with any results.

The county's elections director, Brad Nelson, will not be at the meeting to approve a change of audit procedures because of family issues, but county workers involved in those processes caution that while it's theoretically possible to make Duniho's suggested change, it would be logistically difficult.

"That's a monumental task," Pima County Recorder F. Ann Rodriguez said. "It's kind of late to be changing the procedures in the middle of a major election."

The sorting machine needed to do the job efficiently would cost at least $125,000, said Chris Roads, deputy recorder and registrar of voters.

To do the sorting by hand would likely take two days, Moffatt said.

The window to challenge a vote count after an election in Arizona is five days after the canvass.

.  

Friday, October 26, 2012

ELECTIONS RIGGED IN THE U.S.? YOU WON'T HEAR IT FROM THE U.S. MAINSTREAM MEDIA, BUT IT HAS BEED COVERED IN THE UK.




NSC Analyst Proves GOP is Stealing Elections


By Denis G. Campbell and
Charley James
(c) 25 October 2012 


UPDATED: Why is Mitt Romney so confident?

In states where the winner will be decided by less than 10%, of the vote he already knows he will win. This is no tinfoil hat conspiracy. It’s a maths problem. And mathematics showed changes in actual raw voting data that had no statistical correlation other than programmable computer fraud. This computer fraud resulted in votes being flipped from Democrat to Republican in every federal, senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial election since 2008 (thus far) and in the 2012 primary contests from other Republicans to Mitt Romney.

This goes well beyond Romney’s investment control in voting machine maker Hart Intercivic and Diebold’s close ties to George W. Bush. Indeed all five voting machine companies have very strong GOP fundraising ties, yet executives (including the candidate’s son Tagg Romney) insist there is no conflict between massively supporting one party financially whilst controlling the machines that record and count the votes.

A retired NSA analyst has spent several sleepless nights applying a simple formula to past election results across Arizona. His results showed across-the-board systemic election fraud on a coordinated and massive scale. But the analysis indicated that this only happens in larger precincts because anomalies in small precincts can be more easily detected.

“Easy to Cheat”
The bigger the precinct (x axis) the higher the number of votes for Romney
and corresponding decrease for Santorum and Paul when all lines should look
like the Gingrich line.                                                   (Source: MA Duniho
Retired NSA analyst Michael Duniho has worked for nearly seven years trying to understand voting anomalies in his home state of Arizona and Pima County. This publication has written extensively about apparent vote machine manipulation in a 2006 RTA Bond issue election that is still being fought in the courts. Said Duniho, “It is really easy to cheat using computers to count votes, because you can’t see what is going on in the machine.”

When Duniho applied a mathematical model to actual voting results in the largest voting precincts, he saw that only the large precincts suddenly trended towards Mitt Romney in the Arizona primary – and indeed all Republicans in every election since 2008 – by a factor of 8%-10%. The Republican candidate in every race saw an 8-10%. gain in his totals whilst the Democrat lost 8-10%. This is a swing of up to  20 point, enough to win an election unless a candidate was losing very badly.

Since sifting through and decoding massive amounts of data was his work for decades on behalf of the National Security Agency, he wanted to understand why this was ONLY happening in large precincts.

Nose Counting
The idea of examining large precinct results came via a link to a report written by Francois Choquette and James Johnson. Choquette became curious about South Carolina primary results in the February Republican contest. There a poll observer noted an unusually big gain of votes for Mitt Romney in larger precincts than in smaller ones. Choquette wanted to know why?

He examined and applied all of the normal statistical markers to see where a variance might occur: income level, population density, race, urban vs. rural, even party registration numbers. He found no correlation to explain why Romney votes trended upward while Paul and Santorum votes trended downward -yet only in large precincts.

Choquette then looked at all 50 states and found roughly a 10% switch in votes from Democrat to GOP. This was noted in every state except Utah, where the presumption was, as it was Mitt’s religious home state and very conservative, there was no chance of Romney losing and no variance was found.
Choquette even saw in Maricopa County, which is Phoenix and its suburbs, that in 2008 Romney used this technique against John McCain. But McCain beat him by too much for a 10% fraud gain to matter. McCain tried to do the same thing in the general election to President Obama but 9 million votes nationally were too many to make up.

Examining every county across America was too massive an undertaking for any one person so he included a simple set of instructions and encouraged others to do the same with raw vote totals in their county/state.

1. Download the text files of all raw actual vote results by precinct from the Secretary of State’s Office.
2. Arrange them in precinct order.
3. Put in all of the candidate totals for each precinct.
4. Sort the data by total vote smallest on the top.

Now here it gets a bit dense: He needed to add columns that show cumulative totals by candidate then compare them by candidate to establish trend lines.

That reveals trends should remain statistically constant throughout an election.

Stealing Votes
But as the spreadsheet shows, the larger the precinct, the numbers start to change dramatically.

“If percentages did not change from one precinct to the next, we would see a flat line, but what we are seeing is sloped lines downward for Democrats and upward for Republicans (or, in the case of the Presidential primary, upward for Romney and downward for his opponents), said Duniho.”

In every election contest, the trend lines dramatically crossed for no apparent reason. It was revealed that votes were being systemically bled off for Rick Santorum and Ron Paul and then being credited to Mitt Romney.

Once Duniho completed the spreadsheet, he pumped in actual vote totals from other Arizona election contests.

Chart showing Barber v Kelly special election to replace Gabby Giffords
result in Pima County where the margin of victory was too large even
with the supposed 'fix' in to overcome.
He looked at every 2010 race in Arizona from Governor Brewer to Senator McCain and Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. The trends lines all did the exact same thing. Someone had manipulated the election outcome, most likely one person inserting a programme inside the system’s central computer… that flipped votes.
The results were astounding.

They showed that Governor Brewer actually lost her election and Gabby Gifford’s razor thin less than 1% point re-election victory over Tea Party Conservative Jesse Kelly was closer to a 20 point victory for her.

Duniho added, “We need to have strong hand count audits to confirm the integrity of these elections. This means comparing hand counts with official reports of the election.”

Ohio Precedent

This isn’t the first time Republicans have been charged with vote theft. It happened in the 2004 presidential election, in Ohio and Florida.

In Ohio, GOP consultant Michael Connell claimed that the vote count computer program he had created for the state had a trap door that shifted Democratic votes to the GOP.

He was subpoenaed as a witness in a lawsuit against then-Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, and lawyers for the plaintiff asked the Dept. of Justice to provide him with security because there were two threats made against Connell’s life by people associated with Karl Rove. But in Dec. 2008, before the trial began, Connell was killed in a plane crash outside Akron Ohio.
There were problems in Florida, as well.

A study by the Quantitative Methods Research Team at the University of California at Berkeley found that anomalies between Florida counties using touch-screen voting and those using other methods could not be explained statistically. Noting the higher-than-expected votes for Bush in three large Democratic counties, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, Michael Hout, a Berkeley professor who did the study said there were strong suspicions of vote-rigging.

“No matter how many factors and variables we took into consideration, the significant correlation in the votes for President Bush and electronic voting cannot be explained,” Hout said. “The study shows that a county’s use of electronic voting resulted in a disproportionate increase in votes for President Bush. There is just a trivial probability of evidence like this appearing in a population where the true difference is zero—less than once in a thousand chances.”

Don’t Trust, Verify
Indeed the only way to 100% verify this election fraud would be through handcounts of ballots by precinct, matching those results to the reported totals. But as was mentioned earlier, a group in Pima County has been trying unsuccessfully to get access to ballots to conduct such a count for almost five years since anomalies first surfaced in voting machines in 2006.

Is there a judge in Arizona likely to suddenly reverse past trends and allow access to conduct such a handcount of ballots 12 days before a national election? And if not, why not? Maybe someone needs to commission the Anonymous hacker group to re-level the playing field because the courts are not going to do it.

The results of Duniho’s analysis can only happen if votes are being stolen, and the only way that’s possible is if the computerised machines are programmed to steal them. Welcome to Zimbabwe.
More than 100 million Americans will cast their ballots thinking their vote will be fairly counted. It should be. Yet the crooks know they can safely flip up to 10% of votes without consequence. Anything more than that is statistically suspect.

President Obama won by such a huge margin in 2008 that even with this anomaly built into the system, he cruised to victory. This year the election is much closer. Can American democracy afford yet another election crisis placing three of the four last national Presidential election results in question or worse: The outcome was stolen, the outcome a victim of election theft?

Don’t Take Our Word
Use the spreadsheet above to do the maths in your own state, county or precinct. The results are compelling. Then demand that the Justice Department stop this insane view that results need to be reported by 11 pm for the television networks. Demand hand ballot counts!

We use paper ballots in the UK and results do not even begin to trickle in until 3 am. The final outcome can take up to three days to finalise. But voters in Britain know the count is accurate because every ballot is transparently hand-counted. When I read this article that Serbia, Belarus and Kazakhstan were sending election monitors to watch the US Election?, I knew we’d jumped the shark.

We are already being victimized by vote fraud on a scale that, in another country, would lead to calls for international election monitors. It is time for Americans to stop being victims of ghosts in the machine.

(This story was simultaneously released on the magazine and The David Pakman Show of 25 October.)

Denis G. Campbell is the author of 6 books including ‘Billionaire Boys Election Freak Show,’ ‘The Vagina Wars’ & ‘Egypt Unsh@ckled.’ He is the editor of UK Progressive Magazine and provides commentary to the BBC, itv Al Jazeera English, CNN, MSNBC and others. His weekly ‘World View with Denis Campbell’ segment can be heard every Thursday on the globally syndicated The David Pakman Show. You can follow him on Twitter via @UKProgressive and on Facebook.

Charley James is a long-time independent journalist who covers social justice, politics and economic issues. He’s worked in print and broadcast media for national magazines, large newspapers and major market radio and television outlets. Follow Charley on Twitter @SuddenlyHomeles.

Monday, October 22, 2012

MY FRIEND MARK CRISPIN MILLER IS INTERVIEWED ON THE SUBJECT OF ELECTION FRAUD IN THE UNITED STATES


MCM interviewed by RT’s Abby Martin, on election fraud!



http://youtu.be/74fWsn8BLts                                                                               Original Here

“Abby Martin talks to Mark Crispin Miller, NYU Professor & Author of ‘Fooled Again’”
Please post your comments at the source: http://youtu.be/74fWsn8BLts

Blogger's Note: If you should want to know more about election fraud in the U.S., I recommend reading the book edited by Mark Crispin Miller, Looser Take All -- Election Fraud and the Subversion of Democracy 2004 - 2008.  I am the author of one of the chapters, there are many chapters better than mine, and it can be had from Amazon for only about 3 bucks.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

MATHEMATICIAN RICHARD CHARNIN TAKES A FINAL LOOK AT THE RESULTS OF THE WISCONSIN RECALL ELECTION, THE FORCING OF THE EXIT POLLS TO MATCH THE "OFFICIAL" VOTE COUNT, THE FAILURE OF THE MEDIA TO REVEAL THE ACTUAL EXIT POLL RESULTS, AND PREDICTION OF THE WINNER BY HIS TRUE VOTE MODEL. HE ALSO REVEALS THE "STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE" RESULTS (84% OF THEM FAVORING REPUBLICANS) OF THE "OFFICIAL" OUTCOMES OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS FROM 1988 TO 2008 WHEN COMPARED WITH THE *UN*ADJUSTED STATE EXIT POLLS.








Original here

Wisconsin Recall: The adjusted Final Exit Poll was forced to match an unlikely recorded vote


Wisconsin Recall: The adjusted Final Exit Poll was forced to match an unlikely recorded vote

Richard Charnin

June 6, 2012
Updated: June 20

The media and the exit pollsters have done it again.

Before the first votes were posted, the media reported that based on the exit polls, the election was “too close to call”. But Walker won by 53.2-46.3%, a 173,000 vote margin. Assuming “too close to call” meant that the exit poll indicated a 50/50 split, then there was a significant 7% discrepancy between the unadjusted exit poll and the recorded vote. I believe that Barrett was actually leading the exit polls. Of course, we will never know until the unadjusted exit polls are released. In any case, what caused the unknown red shift?

According to the Wisconsin True Vote Model , Barrett was a likely 54-46% winner. Barrett should have won easily – assuming the caveat of a fair election. But the election was very likely stolen.

Forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

The Final Wisconsin adjusted exit poll (2547 respondents) indicated that Walker had 53.0% (see the NY Times link below). The 0.2% difference between the Final and the recorded vote was the result of the standard policy of forcing the unadjusted poll to match the vote.

The pollsters claim that the exit poll had a 4.0% margin of error. But they can’t mean the final, adjusted poll because it is always forced to match the recorded vote within 0.5%.

Why did the media not provide the actual unadjusted exit poll demographics? Was it because they knew that they would have to adjust all the crosstabs to match a rigged recorded vote – and did not want the public to view the “adjustments”?

The Fraud Factor

And as is always the case, there was no mention of the fraud factor in the mainstream media. There never is. To the exit pollsters and the media, there is no such thing as election fraud.

The GOP employs overt voter disenfranchisement in plain sight by robocalling voters with false information and having election workers discourage voters from using paper ballots and vote on unverifiable touchscreen DREs. But we are supposed to believe that right-wing voting machine manufacturers would not stoop so low as to write malicious code to covertly flip votes in cyberspace.

In 2010, Walker “won” by 52.2-46.6%, supposedly due to low-Democratic turnout.
Was the election a prologue of the recall?

In the recall, Democrats turned out in droves, they wanted Walker gone. There was no way that the unpopular Governor would match, much less exceed, his 2010 vote – if the votes were counted as cast. But that is a quaint notion considering the overwhelming statistical evidence of systemic election fraud since 1988.

Implausible 2008 returning voters and 2012 vote shares

Obama had a 56.2% recorded share in Wisconsin and 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll (2.4% margin of error). Assuming Obama had a 60% True Vote share, then to match the recall vote, Walker needed the following:
1) 81% of McCain and 71% of Obama voters turned out.
2) He needed to win 25% of Obama and 95% of McCain voters.
3) He needed 46% of new voters who did not vote in 2010. The 2012 exit poll indicates he had 45% and that new voters comprised 13% of the total vote.
In order to win by his recorded vote, Walker needed a 10% advantage in returning 2008 voters and a 20% advantage in net defections. That is highly implausible.

Exit poll oddities

1) A full 5% of voters were not white or black. But their vote is n/a.
2) Philosophy: 13% of liberals voted for Walker?
3) Party ID: 34% Democrat/ 35% Republican in a progressive state?
4) Labor: Just 62% voted for Barrett?
5) Obama preferred by 51-44%, yet Barrett lost the recall by 53.2-46.3%?
6) Barrett only got 81% of would-be Obama voters?
7)Turnout:47% of recall were returning Walker 2010 and 34% Barrett? That’s a 13% difference. In 2010 Walker “won” by 52.2-46.6%.
8) Urban vote: Barrett had just 62% in big cities?

The Ultimate Smoking Gun:300 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, there were 300 state exit polls, of which 252 red-shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Republican and 48 to the Democrat. Assuming zero fraud, approximately 150 would be expected for each. The probability P that 252 would red-shift to the Republican is:
P = 1.3E-34 = Binomdist(62,75,.5,false)^4
P = 1 in 8 billion trillion trillion

The margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 137 of 300 state exit polls (only 15 would be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is:
P = 7E-80 = Poisson (137, .05*300, false)
P = 1 in 1 million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

Of the 137 exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded, 134 moved in favor of the Republicans (only 8 would be expected). Three favored the Democrat. The probability P that 134 out of 300 would favor the Republican is:
P= 5E-115 = Poisson (134, .025*300, false)
P= 1 in 2 million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

In the Wisconsin recall Exit Poll notes (following the crosstabs), the pollsters indicate there were 2547 exit poll respondents and that the margin of error (MoE) was +/-4%. Presumably, this includes a 30% cluster factor. But the MoE seems too high, considering the number of respondents.

The theoretical MoE is given by the simple formula: MoE =.98/sqrt(n), where n is the number of respondents. For the recall: MoE = 2.0% = .98/sqrt(2547). It is 2.6% after adding the 30% cluster effect.

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote to within 0.50%. Yet the pollsters claim that the MoE is 4.0%. Why do the pollsters even bother to mention the MoE? It has no meaning since the exit poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote anyway.

If we had unadjusted exit poll data, the margin of error would be applied to determine the interval where the vote share would fall 95% of the time. This is why unadjusted exit polls are necessary. The standard practice of forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote implicitly assumes zero fraud, i.e. the recorded vote is identical to the True Vote. It never is.

The conventional wisdom is very conventional – and very misleading:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/wisconsin-recall-vote_n_1572662.html

The NY Times Election site has the FINAL, adjusted exit poll crosstabs.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html


About Richard Charnin
In 1965, I graduated from Queens College (NY) with a BA in Mathematics. I later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University and an MS in Operations Research from the Polytechnic Institute of NY. I started out as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer and then moved to Wall Street as a manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for several major investment banks. I consulted in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In 2004 l began posting weekly "Election Model" projections based on state and national polls. As "TruthIsAll", I have been posting election analysis to determine the True Vote ever since.
View all posts by Richard Charnin

Thursday, June 14, 2012

U.S. ELECTIONS ARE RECORDED ON HACKABLE ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES AND RECORDED BY PRIVATE CONTRACTORS, WHILE THE CORPORATE-OWNED "MAINSTREAM" MEDIA MAKE UP STORIES TO EXPLAIN UNEXPECTED OUTCOMES ...EVEN THOUGH THESE OUTCOMES ARE "STATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE" IN AN UNRIGGED ELECTION.









Bob Fitrakis

Wisconsin: None dare call it vote rigging
June 14, 2012

If vote-rigging prospers, none may call it vote-rigging. It simply becomes the new norm. Once again, the universal laws of statistics apply only outside U.S. borders. The recall vote in Wisconsin produced another significant 7% discrepancy between the unadjusted exit poll and the so-called "recorded vote." In actual social science, this level of discrepancy, with the results being so far outside the expected margin of error would not be accepted.

When I took Ph.D. statistics to secure my doctorate in political science, we were taught to work through the rubric, sometime referred to as HISMISTER. The "H" stood for an explanation of the discrepancy rooted in some historical intervention, such as one of the candidates being caught in a public restroom with his pants down and a "wide stance" soliciting an undercover cop. The "I" that came next suggested we should check our instrumentation, that is, are the devices adequately reporting the data?

Here's where U.S. elections become laughable. A couple of private companies, count our votes with secret proprietary hardware and software, the most notable being ES&S. Every standard of election transparency is routinely violated in the U.S. electronic version of faith-based voting. How the corporate-dominated media deals with the issue is by "adjusting the exit polls." They simply assume the recorded vote on easily hacked and programmed private machines are correct and that the international gold standard for detecting election fraud – exit polls – must be wrong.

They are not going to go through the rest of the acronym and check to see if the Sample makes sense, that the right Measurements are being taken, or whether or not there's been a breakdown in Implementing the exit polling. They won't check to see if the representative Size of the polling numbers are accurate, or if there are problems with the pollster's Technique, or if there was human Error, or if there's just bad Recording going on.

Of course, the machines could be recording wrong because they are programmed for an incorrect outcome. The easiest people to convince regarding the absurdity of electronic voting with private proprietary hardware and software are the computer programmers across the political spectrum. Statisticians and mathematicians also readily comprehend the obvious nature of rigged elections.

One of my favorite mathematicians is Richard Charnin, who on his website using readily available public information, calculates the odds of the so-called ‘red shift" occurring from the 1988 to 2008 presidential elections. The red shift refers to the overwhelming pick up of votes by the Republican Party in recorded votes over what actual voters report to exit pollsters.

In Charnin's analysis of exit poll data, we can say with a 95% confidence level – that means in 95 out of 100 elections – that the exit polls will fall within a statistically predictable margin of error. Charnin looked at 300 presidential state exit polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 state elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Shockingly, 137 of the 300 state presidential exit polls fell outside the margin of error.

What is the probability of this happening?

"One in one million trillion trillion trlllion trillion trillion trillion," said Charnin.

More proof of Republican operatives and sympathizers is found in the fact that 132 of the elections fell outside the margin in favor of the GOP. We would expect eight.

Say you have a fair coin to flip. We would expect that if we flip that coin there would be an even split between heads and tails – or in this case, Republicans and Democrats. Election results falling outside the margin of error should be equally split between both parties. Yet, only five times, less than expected, did the extra votes fall in the direction of the Democratic Party.

So what are the odds? According to Charnin, of 132 out of 300 state presidential elections exceeding the margin of error in the direction of the Republicans – one in 600 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.

The corporate-owned media does not want to mention that the problems with the exit polls began with the ascendancy of the former CIA Director George Herbert Walker Bush to the presidency in 1988. It is also that year when the non-transparent push-and-pray voting machines were introduced in the New Hampshire primary by Bush ally John Sununu. Bush, who rigged elections for the CIA throughout the Third World did unexpectedly well where the voting machines were brought in.

In any other election outside the U.S., the U.S. State Department would condemn the use of the these highly riggable machines based on the discrepancy in the exit polls. It's predictable what would happen if an anti-U.S. KGB agent in some former Soviet Central Asian republic picked up an unexplained 5% of the votes at odds with the exit polls. A new election would be called for, as it was in the Ukraine in 2004. We would not have accepted the reported vote from the corrupt intelligence officer.

The CIA Director's son wins with laughable exit poll discrepancies in 2000 and 2004 and the mainstream media sees no evil. The media's perspective is to discredit the exit polls, which they sponsor, and call any who point to the polls "conspiracy theorists."

In 2004, 22 states had a red shift to the CIA Director's son, George W. Bush. Usually such improbably results are signs of a Banana Republic. Now we have a too-close-to-call neck and neck recall race in Wisconsin that show an obvious red shift for a right-wing red governor. Nobody wants to look at the non-transparent black box machines. Electronic election rigging has prospered. Long live the "adjusted" vote totals.

--
Originally published by The Free Press, http://freepress.org.


Saturday, June 09, 2012

RICHARD CHARNIN EXPLAINS THAT THE U.S. EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS ADJUSTED (FORCED) TO MATCH THE OFFICIAL TALLY BY THE END OF ELECTION DAY, AT WHICH TIME THE ACTUAL EXIT POLL RESULTS DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER, DURING THE 2004 ELECTION THE ACTUAL DATA WERE FOUND ON THE INTERNET ALL DAY LONG AND 22 MINUTES INTO THE NEXT DAY, AT WHICH POINT KERRY WAS LEADING BUSH BY 51-47%. THE UNADJUSTED 2004 EXIT POLLS WERE FINALLY RELEASED A YEAR AGO, REVEALING THAT KERRY HAD ACTUALLY WON BY 51.7% TO 47.0% WITH 13660 RESPONDENTS (MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE). THEN AS NOW THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA ABETED THE CRIME BY INSISTING ALL DAY LONG THAT "THE RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL."


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The exit pollster's MO never changes. In the recall, the pundits said it was "too close to call". I’m quite sure that Barrett was winning, but the media knew the fix was in so they had to keep it close. They knew the actual exit poll numbers would not see the light of day. But they sure called it quickly for Walker, didn't they?

The pollster’s have had plenty of experience in adjusting exit polls to match the vote count.

In 2004, preliminary state exit poll numbers were downloaded from the CNN website by Jonathan Simon. Kerry led by 50-48%. The state polls were already in the process of being matched to the recorded vote. But Bush was winning the vote count - a massive divergence from the exit polls.

We later learned that Kerry led the National Exit Poll from 4pm to midnight. At 4pm (8349 respondents) he led by 51-48%. At 730 pm (11027 respondents) by 51-48%. At 1222am (13047) by 51-47%. But we didn’t see these numbers. They were not for public view.

The next day, the CNN and NYT websites showed that Bush won the National Exit Poll (13660) by 51-48% - matching the recorded vote. How did the final 613 National Exit Poll respondents enable Bush to flip the vote? The exit pollsters never could answer that one. After all, the flip was mathematically impossible.

The unadjusted 2004 exit polls (state and national) were not released until about a year ago, long after the damage was done. And guess what? Kerry actually won the 13660 respondents! He had 7064 (51.7%), Bush 6414 (47.0%), Other 182 (1.3%).

Someday, probably in 2022, we’ll get to see the unadjusted recall exit poll numbers. In the meantime, here's the 2004 National Exit Poll Timeline that was “not meant for public viewing”.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/
Blogger's Note: See preceding post for Richard Charnin's credentials and further information on the recent results of recalling Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin.

Thursday, June 07, 2012

WISCONSIN'S RECALLED GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER ATTRIBUTED HIS VICTORY TO VOTERS PREFERING "LEADERS WHO STAND UP AND MAKE TOUGH DECISIONS." (LIKE CUTTING THEIR SALARIES AND BENEFITS AND FIRING THEIR CHILDREN'S TEACHERS?) EVEN MORE IRONIC, WALKER'S OPPONENT BARRETT CONCEDED WITH THE COMMENT "WE HAVE SEEN THIS DEMOCRACY COME ALIVE." (LIKE DEMOCRACY IS YOUR RIGHT TO GO TO THE POLLS THINKING YOU ARE "THROWING THE BUM OUT" AND THEN ACCEPTING THAT YOUR VOTE MAY HAVE BEEN MISCOUNTED?) THERE IS VOLUMINOUS EVIDENCE THAT U.S. ELECTIONS ARE ROUTINELY RIGGED ...THAT IS IF YOU HAVE OTHER SOURCES OF NEWS THAN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. YET THIS TIME EVEN LIBERAL NEWS SOURCES LIKE DEMOCRACY NOW ATTRIBUTE WALKER'S UNEXPECTED WIN TO HIS SPENDING 7 TIMES AS MUCH MONEY AS HIS OPPONENT. NOW LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT... IF I'M RECALLING A GOVERNOR BECAUSE HE IS SAVAGING MY STANDARD OF LIVING, AM I GOING TO BE SO DAZZLED BY HIS EXPENSIVE ATTACK ADS THAT I DECIDE TO KEEP HIM? TO ME WE HAVE JUST SEEN OUR DEMOCRACY *DIE*. DON'T THINK SO? READ BELOW AND WEEP.









                                    Go here for original


Wisconsin Recall: The adjusted Final Exit Poll was forced to match an unlikely recorded vote


Richard Charnin |

June 6, 2012

The media and the exit pollsters have done it again.

Before the first votes were posted, the media reported that based on the exit polls, the election was “too close to call”. But Walker won by a solid 7% margin and 173,000 votes. Why the big red shift?

Why did the media not provide the actual unadjusted exit poll data (the “crosstabs”)? Was it because they knew that they would have to adjust the poll to match a bogus recorded vote and did not want the public to view the impossible “adjustments”?

The solid 53.2-46.3% Walker win was more than implausible since voter turnout exceeded that of the 2010 election. Walker “won” the recorded vote 52.2-46.6% in a supposed low-turnout election. But who turned out in droves in 2012? Democrats and independents who wanted Walker out. The grossly unpopular Walker could not have done better than he did in 2010 – only worse.

And as is always the case, there was no mention of the fraud factor in the mainstream media. There never is. To the exit pollsters and the media, there is no such thing as election fraud.

The GOP employs overt voter disenfranchisement in plain sight by robocalls, election workers discouraging voters from using paper ballots, etc. But we are supposed to believe that they would not covertly program the voting machines to flip votes from Barrett to Walker in cyberspace? And even if the machines are manufactured and programmed by right-wing organizations using unverifiable code.

The conventional wisdom is very conventional – and very misleading:

The NY Times Election site has the FINAL, adjusted exit poll crosstabs:
Here are just a few exit poll oddities:

1) A full 5% of voters were not white or black. But their vote is n/a.
2) Philosophy: 13% of liberals voted for Walker?
3) Party ID: 34% Democrat/ 35% Republican in a progressive state?
4) Labor: Just 62% voted for Barrett?
5) Obama preferred by 51-44%, yet Barrett lost the recall by 53.2-46.3%?
6) Barrett only got 81% of would-be Obama voters?
7) 47% voted for Walker in 2010 and just 34% for Barrett?
Walker only “won” by 52.2-46.6% in 2010.
8) Urban vote: Barrett gets just 62% in the big cities?

If we assume an equal 75% Obama and McCain voter turnout in the recall, a 50/50 split in new and returning third party voters, then in order to match the recorded vote, Walker needed 28% of returning Obama voters while Barrett had just 5% of returning McCain voters. That is a very implausible net 23% defection of Obama voters.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDRwcWRPTUZoZk53YUlxOEVMT0FnX3c#gid=32

The True Vote Model indicates that Barrett should have won easily – assuming the caveat of a fair election. But the election was stolen. Its still the same old story – a case of do or die.



About Richard Charnin

In 1965, I graduated from Queens College (NY) with a BA in Mathematics. I later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University and an MS in Operations Research from the Polytechnic Institute of NY. I started out as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer and then moved to Wall Street as a manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for several major investment banks. I consulted in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In 2004 l began posting weekly "Election Model" projections based on state and national polls. As "TruthIsAll", I have been posting election analysis to determine the True Vote ever since.