One 77-year-old’s search for the truth: 9/11, election fraud, illegal wars, Wall Street criminality, a stolen nuke, the neocon wars, control of the U.S. government by global corporations, the unjustified assault on Social Security, media complicity, and the "Great Recession" about to become the second Great Depression. "The most important truths are hidden from us by the powerful few who strive to steal the American dream by keeping We the People in the dark."
From Executive Intelligence Review, February 20, 2015
by Jeffrey Steinberg
Feb. 17—As of midnight on Feb. 15, a ceasefire went into force in
eastern Ukraine. The deal that was hammered out among Russian President
Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President
François Hollande, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko—i.e.,
without the direct involvement of the Obama Administration and the U.K.
government—after 17 hours of non-stop negotiations in Minsk last week,
is fragile, to say the least.
The immediate danger lies with an identifiable force—the neo-Nazi
militias who are an integral part of the Kiev government, which came to
power one year ago in a Nazi-driven coup d’état. Those Nazis are acting
as protected assets of the Obama Administration, specifically Assistant
Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland.
These neo-Nazi forces have officially rejected the ceasefire. The
battalions they control in southeastern Ukraine are not fully under the
control of the central government in Kiev, but are armed by Ukraine’s
“oligarchs”—big businessmen such as Dnepropetrovsk Governor
Ihor Kolomoysky. They are the offshoot of the Bandera movement, which
was fascist in its own right even before World War II, then welcomed
Hitler’s invasion of Ukraine and carried out atrocities against the
people of Ukraine and Poland that should have landed them in the dock at
the Nuremberg war crimes tribunal. Instead, they were recruited by
British and American intelligence services for the Cold War against the
Soviet Union.
The neo-Nazi representatives within the government in Kiev are also
out to sabotage any peace agreement. According to Russian media, former
Commandant of the Maidan and current First Deputy Speaker of the
Ukrainian parliament (the Supreme Rada) Andriy Parubiy is coming to
Washington this week. A cofounder of the neo-Nazi Svoboda party and of
one of the paramilitary groups that became the Right Sector spearhead of
the February 2014 coup, Parubiy today is a leader in the People’s
Front, the political party of the man Victoria Nuland hand-picked as
Ukraine’s post-coup prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
Speaking Feb. 14 on Ukrainian TV, Parubiy announced the purpose of
the trip: to get weapons. He said that Ukraine needs to strengthen its
armed Forces and get “the USA to give us highly precise modern
weaponry.” He added,
“Next week I am going to the United States, to discuss this in a very concrete and targeted way.”
The possibility that the U.S. would arm Ukraine—a move Moscow would
see as an act of war—is precisely what impelled the leaders of France
and Germany to work frenetically to get a ceasefire in Ukraine. It would
be a step to World War III.
The Rush for a Ceasefire
President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel saw the Minsk talks as
existential. They agreed that, if there were no diplomatic breakthrough,
the Obama Administration would begin arming the Ukrainian military and
this would escalate the crisis. Over the past weeks, more and more
strategic analysts and policymakers have come to view the Ukraine crisis
as a potential trigger for thermonuclear war between the United States
and Russia. Articles headlining the danger have appeared in Germany’s
Der Spiegel and even Britain’s Daily Telegraph.
The specter of a war of annihilation starting in the center of Europe
was a powerful incentive for Merkel and Hollande to team up to preempt
the U.S. weapons flows by the last-ditch diplomacy.
On the eve of the Minsk talks, Chancellor Merkel flew to Washington
on Feb. 9 to confer with President Obama. She delivered a blunt message,
according to German and American sources. First, she told the President
that Europe was adamantly opposed to the U.S. arming the Ukrainian
Army. Second, she told Obama that the lack of a direct dialogue between
him and Russian President Putin was putting the world at risk. Only the
leaders of the two nations with the thermonuclear arsenals that could
destroy the planet could be the ultimate guarantors of mankind’s
survival. They had to resume a direct, personal dialogue, Merkel
insisted.
Her admonition appears to have had some impact. On Feb. 11, on the
eve of the Minsk talks, Obama called Putin, and the two men had a
90-minute conversation, the content of which has been kept secret.
According to Spiegel Online, which published a detailed account of
Merkel’s and Hollande’s diplomatic efforts, the mere fact that the phone
call took place demonstrated that Washington was deeply interested in
the outcome of the Minsk talks.
At one point in the marathon diplomatic session, according to the
Spiegel account, Putin, in private, spoke by phone to the heads of the
self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR). He
secured their agreement to the ceasefire terms. In addition, Kremlin
aide Vladislav Surkov shuttled between the
Hollande-Merkel-Poroshenko-Putin meeting and the Minsk contact group,
which also met through the night at another location in Minsk (because
Poroshenko refused to speak with the DPR/LPR delegation directly). It
was the contact group, consisting of Alexander Zakharchenko (DPR), Igor
Plotnitsky (LPR), Ukrainian ex-President Leonid Kuchma, Russian
Ambassador to Kiev Mikhail Zurabov, and OSCE negotiator Heidi
Tagliavini, who actually signed the 10-point Minsk accord.
In the previous months of renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine, after
the September 2014 ceasefire broke down, the DPR/LPR forces captured an
additional belt of territory, especially within the Donetsk Region, as
they moved to push the Kiev battalions out of the range from which they
could shell Donetsk and other cities. While the Minsk talks were
proceeding, the DPR/LPR militias had nearly encircled 6,000 to 8,000
Ukrainians in the town of Debaltseve, the major rail junction between
Donetsk and Lugansk. With growing defections, collapsing morale, and
widespread draft evasion, the Ukraine Armed Forces were already at a
break-point. For Merkel and Hollande, the idea of arming such a
disintegrating army was a grave mistake, reflecting a lack of
understanding of the reality of the Ukraine crisis in official
Washington.
The Nuland Factor
Indeed, the policy of the Obama Administration towards Ukraine and
Russia has been hijacked from day one by a collection of
neo-conservatives and humanitarian interventionist ideologues—led by
Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria
Nuland. The wife of neo-con Robert Kagan, Nuland served as a foreign
policy advisor to then-Vice President Dick Cheney, before being
appointed as the Bush Administration’s Ambassador to NATO.
Nuland publicly boasted that the U.S. had poured $5 billion into the
“democracy” movement in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and she
made clear, in an infamous taped phone call in January 2014, that the
man who is now Ukrainian Prime Minister, Yatsenyuk, was owned by
Washington. She is responsible for covering up the powerful role of the
Banderite Nazis in the Maidan coup and the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Nuland’s current role in sabotaging efforts for peace was highlighted
in a Feb. 15 article in Germany’s Der Spiegel, entitled “America’s Riot
Diplomat.”[1] The column stated that Nuland poses a threat to America’s
allies, and that while she is supposed to solve the crisis of Ukraine
and relations with Russia, “in the crisis, Nuland herself has become the
problem.”
Der Spiegel described a closed-door meeting, apparently reported
anonymously both to it and to the Bild newspaper, held by Nuland at the
Munich Security Conference one week ago, with “perhaps two dozen U.S.
diplomats and Senators.” There Nuland gave instructions to “fight
against the Europeans” on the issue of arming Ukraine to fight Russia.
She was described as referring “bitterly” to the German Chancellor’s and
French President’s meeting with President Putin as “Merkel’s Moscow
junk,” and “Moscow bullshit,” and she welcomed a Senator’s calling
German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen the “Defeatism Minister.”
These reports give the lie to Nuland’s claim on the morning of Feb.
11, when the Minsk Agreement was announced, that “we [the United States]
enthusiastically support it.”
Der Spiegel says that Nuland does not stop short of calling for “heavy weapons” to be given by NATO to Ukraine.
Raising the Alarm
In a statement issued on Feb. 14, Lyndon LaRouche warned that the war
danger would persist until Nuland was fired and her links to hardcore
Banderite Nazis exposed publicly (see box).
The larger threat of thermonuclear war, stemming from the Ukraine
crisis, was a dominant theme behind the scenes at the annual Munich
Security Conference. On the eve of that meeting, three national security
specialists, former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), former Russian Foreign
Minister Igor Ivanov, and former British Secretary of State for Defence
Des Browne, wrote an op-ed calling for an overhaul of the Euro-Atlantic
security architecture, with an inclusive role for Russia.
The same view was echoed in two other high-visibility venues. On Feb.
11, Jack Matlock, who was President Reagan’s ambassador to the Soviet
Union during the closing days of the Cold War, told a packed audience at
the National Press Club in Washington that the West had violated some
of the most essential agreements with Moscow, those which had allowed
for the peaceful demise of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, and
that the danger of a world war was grave (see transcript in this
Feature).
Two days later, Markus Becker, writing about the Munich Security
Conference in Spiegel Online, warned that the “Threat of War Is Higher
than in the Cold War.” He presented some of the same arguments as the
Nunn-Ivanov-Browne article.
Unless LaRouche’s demand for Nuland’s ouster is acted upon swiftly,
the chances of the neo-Nazis in Ukraine wrecking the fragile peace are
immense. Nuland’s ouster must be followed by the agreement among
governments to disqualify and remove the Nazi elements now running
rampant, and participating in government, in Ukraine. This demand has
been raised repeatedly by the Russian government, and by LaRouche.
If the cycle of violence in eastern Ukraine resumes full-force, the
prospects of escalation into a direct Russia-U.S. military confrontation
are very high.
Richard Burt, who was one of the chief U.S. arms control negotiators
with the Soviets, told Spiegel Online (Feb. 9) that the danger of
nuclear war is very great. “Both American and Russian nuclear arms are
essentially on a kind of hair-trigger alert. Both sides have a nuclear
posture where land-based missiles could be authorized for use in less
than 15 minutes.” He acknowledged that the kind of “hybrid warfare” now
underway in eastern Ukraine adds greatly to the danger of miscalculation
into thermonuclear confrontation. Former Russian Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov concurred, telling Spiegel, “Now the threat of a war is higher
than during the Cold War.”
It must be understood, in addition, that the primary driver for war
is the bankruptcy of the trans-Atlantic financial system, centered in
London and Wall Street. The desperation of financier circles over the
looming doom of their system and the collapse of their political power
is driving the war danger. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has
observed in recent statements, if there had been no Ukraine crisis,
some circles in the West would have created one—to deal with the larger
collapse they are facing.
The global stakes of the Ukraine crisis. The failure of western civilization
From Global Research, February 20, 2015
By Prof. John McMurtry
War party bigotry and hate
may be enough to drive neo-Nazis leading Kiev in the Ukraine civil war.
But the reverse blame of Putin and Russia by corporate media and states
has a deeper interest. It propels the geostrategic economic and military
war of movement through East Europe to Russia. It is the
indispensible big lie to mask their set up for foreign financial
predation. A big pay-off matrix looms in Ukraine for US-led arms
corporations and military services, agribusiness and GMO’s, speculator
funds on debts and currency, monopoly providers of privatized social
services, Big Oil frackers for newly discovered rich deposits, junk food
suppliers like Poroshenko in US-frankenfood alliance, and – last but
not least – the IMF money party waging a war of dispossession by
financial means.
The IMF enforces the global money-sequence cancer system by its
defining policy commands on debt-impoverished countries to open them up
to foreign feeding on their domestic markets and fire-sale enterprises,
drastically reduced workers’ wages and benefits, stripped public
pensions, healthcare and education, sell-off of historic infrastructures
to pay ever more bank-created debts, and – in general- multiplying
transnational money demand and profit invading their life functions at
all levels. The IMF and Wall Street have been cumulatively hollowing out
Africa, Latin America, South-East Asia, South Europe and the US itself
in these ways over 35 years. Now it is the turn of the once social
democratic Europe, state by state, beginning with the most indebted and
helpless. Ukraine on the outskirts of Europe next to Russia is where the
military option has been required to strip it and its former Slavic
economic union with Russia. This historic relationship has been the last
line of life defense in the way, a conservative but sharing ethos of
resource-rich societies with Putin as a superior leader facing the
US-EU’s many-times more powerful economic levers and lethal arms to
bully him and Russia into submission.
To take the naturally rich Ukraine for transnational bank and
corporate looting, the public must be sold the story of Putin as the
villain. Only then can debt screws be applied and the country opened to
long-term and full-spectrum financial, foreign and oligarch control
beneath the people’s notice. The IMF is already in motion to ensure that
the Kiev coup state provides all of this. Few observe the underlying
fact that the crushing bank debt eating societies alive across the world
is all debt money created by big private banks with no legal tender to
back 97% of it. Ukraine is the latest nation to fall into the deadly
trap without a sound. Here public money for public need is ended,
although it created the US itself. As Ben Franklin has testified, to
regain public money issue was the prime reason for the American
Revolution. Public banking was also what made modern Canada from 1938 to
1974 by public investment money without private debt-servicing loaned
by the public Bank of Canada for construction of Canada’s material and
social infrastructures from the St Lawrence Seaway to public pensions
and universal healthcare.
The same is true of almost every society that has economically
succeeded in the modern world. . The Depression and the War especially
taught the world’s real leaders something about public banking as the
only thing that works for real social development. Germany in peace,
China, India, Japan in their most prosperous periods have all relied on
public investment banking in some form. But the Wall Street
counter-revolution happened invisibly in 1974 by Bank of International
Settlements policy to stop governments from lending their own money for
their public investments – the BIS being a coterie of bank heads meeting
in Switzerland led by Wall Street bankers and with no accountability to
any public interest or body. On the contrary, against their
constitutional rights, all governments have been made accountable to the
Wall Street system which runs the US Treasury and the IMF by the
revolving door method. This silent BIS policy destroyed public
investment free of the self-multiplying debt charges now eating away at
every level of the Western economy including sovereign public
investment. Ukraine, with few noticing, has just been privatized at the
bank debt and investment level by the US-led coup state. Its
arrangements with the IMF now loaning money on Wall Street permanent
debt-servicing terms have replaced the $20 billion it had from Russia on
payable public terms along with 30% cut-rate oil and gas.
This most far-reaching change of all has been erased from view by the
official story – the delivery of Ukraine by the US-led coup into the
ever-devouring funnels of the Wall-Street-and-company private banking
system. With all the permanent new debt servicing of an already broken
country spending its future debt on fighting a US-manufactured civil war
fueled by neo-Nazi war thugs, Ukraine will be bled dry. A revealing
example of how IMF debt bondage leverages transnational corporate
control of Ukraine’s greatest resources is the new IMF $17 billion loan
on the condition that Ukraine opens up its peerless vast stretches of
black soil and fertile lands to the biotech cycles of Monsanto, Dupont,
Deere and factory looting of the earth. Similar plans are also in motion
for Big Oil racking of Ukraine’s large newly discovered gas deposits
(fracking is prohibited in Russia).
The transnational corporate and bank looting of Ukraine is the shadow
reason for the US block against any reasonable truce in the civil war
that it has created. This is why a jackal government like Canada’s
Harper’s refuses to respond to any diplomatic correspondence from
Russia, blocking information flows, and proclaiming inflammatory
falsehoods. The profound common life interests at stake are exactly what
the war party is out to make impossible to act on. Ukraine is a prime
agricultural land source of the world and Europe’s biggest landmass, and
it is set for US-EU financial and corporate takeover. Ukraine is also
facing the same ultimate crisis as every country and people – its
government being mutated into a corporate satrap to ensure the country
as an unlimited profit site at least costs and accountability for
foreign corporate and local oligarch profit. It is a paradigm case of
the carcinomic global dispossession that knows no growth but its own.
But it is also the leading current case of armed resistance against this
takeover. Donbas, Putin and Russia are alone in stopping the
life-devouring system’s advance East, with Syriza in Greece the newly
elected resistance within Europe.
All face the same stripping of collective life capital bases to grow
the global money sequences of the apical few with no life function.
Ukraine is the new major feeding zone opening towards Russia. Here as
much as Greece, public assets are on the privatization block.
Slash-and-burn budgets are set to service new unpayable debts to foreign
banks, with far more rich natural and soil wealth to marketize and
expropriate for debt servicing. Ukraine also has large and untapped
fossil-fuel deposits, and it provides new strategic military control up
to Russia’s main border and colossally rich natural resources on the
other side.
Yet the operation of reverse blame goes from Iraq to Libya to Syria
to Ukraine to Russia in one society destruction to the next. With
one-way pervasive media abuse, cumulatively destructive sanctions, and
incremental arming of neo-fascist-led Ukrainian forces, vast global
power, treasure and most of all direction are at stake which affect all
humanity. The line is drawn on the global disorder’s runaway aggression
and trail of social ruin. Or it is stopped by intelligent mass
resistance that does not let up.
This resistance has grown
stronger. A new truce was formed for February 15 by the EU, Kiev-Ukraine
and Russia for this reason. Predictably all voices of the official
story warn that “Russia and the separatists” will not obey its terms.
Yet when we examine the record of international law and agreements,
life-protective promises and agreements, who always overrides them at
will? The track record tells us very plainly, but the record is always
excluded from the ruling story. What is presupposed instead is the most
inane of all moral equations unconsciously assumed as first principle of
judgement in international affairs: the US = Good and its Enemy = Evil.
Search for any exception to this inner logic of the official narrative
in any major conflict across the globe in 50 years. What is never stated
are the actual facts of “lawless aggression”, “gross violations of
international law” and “innocent civilians terrorized and murdered”.
That the US is by far the knock-down leader on all counts of war crime,
killing, terror and, in general, violence against human life of every
kind is taboo to understand. While always accusing others of violating
“the international laws and norms of the community of nations”, it
repudiates and sabotages them without evident exception.
Consider the systemic violations and subversions across the spectrum.
The US government has refused to ratify the International Criminal
Court to uphold the law against war crimes and crimes against humanity,
and it has publicly repudiated the Court’s right to investigate US
criminal violations including the “supreme crime” of initiating a war of
aggression. While it perpetually invokes international laws to accuse
others, it repudiates any life-protective law whatever in its actions.
In truth, the US (and its key ally Israel) has systematically
undermined virtually all international laws to protect human life –
treaties and conventions against landmines, against biological weapons,
against international ballistic missiles, against small arms, against
torture, against racism, against arbitrary seizure and imprisonment,
against military weather distortions, against biodiversity loss, against
climate destabilization, and even international agreements on the
rights of children and of women.
The big-lie system runs
to the moral DNA of the US state. Its record of continual war crimes and
crimes against humanity by direct or proxy violation should be foremost
in the minds of those observing what happens next in Ukraine. It can only continue if NATO-country public opinion does not join the dots in the ultimate failure of Western civilization.
Armored vehicles. By first estimates, Novorossia captured over 80 tanks in repairable condition.
Some of them were fully operational, even loaded with ammunition. Some
have been abandoned without fuel, others were abandoned after their
tracks were damaged, most of the vehicles captured have light or medium
damage. This is sufficient for at least two tank battalions.
According to the official Kiev GenStaff announcement, as many as 15
tanks managed to leave the cauldron…out of at least 5 battalion tactical
groups which were originally in the cauldron and 4 additional ones that
were sent in to help.
Over 100 BMPs and BTRs have been captured in repairable condition. The junta managed to take out only about 50.
Artillery. Not fewer than fifty 122mm and 152mm weapons (not counting 120mm mortars), many of which are repairable, and about 15 BM-21 122mm Grad launchers. At least 500 tons of artillery ammunition.
A huge amount of small arms, including heavy
machine guns, RPGs, RPOs [flame rocket launchers used for assaulting
fortified positions and buildings]. Storehouses of food and medicine.
Other goods.
Novorossia commanders are especially grateful to the numerous
volunteer organizations which have equipped the junta’s forces so well:
the hundreds of night vision devices, digital radio stations, thermal
imagers, modern ballistic computers and fire direction gear, wound
treatment and anti-shock kits of Western origin, Kevlar helmets (even
though Russian ones are better, there aren’t enough of them), modern
body armor, will be of great use.
J.Hawk’s Comment: Just
to reiterate, these are the weapons and equipment which are in
repairable condition. Many of UAF’s losses were irretrievable—there are
many photos circulating on the internet showing fields and roads
littered with burned out armored vehicles left behind by the UAF.
Judging by the “LifeNews” report on February 19, 2015 about
Novorossia fighters collecting trophies after Ukrainian troops withdrew
from Debaltsevo, among other finds, NAF received one whole complex of
LCMR (Lightweight Counter-Mortar Radar), supplied by the United States
as part of military assistance to Ukraine.
The U.S. has decided to send to the armed
forces of Ukraine 20 LCMR radars, the first three of which were
delivered in November 2014. According to the information, received by
our blog from the most serious sources,
soon after the transfer one of the stations was damaged during
transportation, and then another station was damaged by artillery fire
of the enemy at the first attempt of its combat use by the Ukrainians.
We can assume that the LCMR radar, abandoned by the Ukrainian troops in
Debaltsevo is the third of this ill-fated first batch of the three
stations.
NAF commander Terek is in charge of a drone recon unit of the First Slavyansk battalion. His unit of 25 people works with drones doing
intelligence gathering near Debaltsevo.
Military correspondents of Novorossia TV delivered humanitarian aid
to the unit from humanitarian battalion “Novorossia.” Some deliveries
are addressed to specific units and fighters.
- Is this a good bulletproof vest?
- It’s average, so so, but better then nothing.
- I am wearing a police one.
- If you crawl on the ground, the pockets start to tear. The detachable pockets are better.
The correspondents asked commander Terek, what they need.
- Thermal boots, or at least warm leather boots
- Everything is mined, there are not enough sappers, so we use
drones to save the lives of our fighters who go on recon missions.
- We need thermal underwear, thermal socks, thin warm hats under helmets, tactical gloves, knee pads and elbow pads.
This is regarding the personal equipment, but as far as military equipment we have plenty of trophies left by Ukrainian troops. New
drones. You know they had truckloads left in Nikishino. When they run,
they leave everything behind. Were do you think our drones come from?
We do need radios with closed channels. They cost 25 000 roubles,
unfortunately. At least a few would be nice. We had to shut them off in
Nikishino. Because their artillery works on signal very well, they
strike on the signal of our drones.
We need serious things, because they get serious things from America and Europe.
- Night vision goggles – at least couple, not to stumble on their positions.
- We have nothing to charge the radios, phones with, no heat, we
need generators, better diesel – because there are problems with
gasoline.
- We got dry meals, thermal underwear, hygiene products for
women. Thank you to the Russian brothers for helping us! The war showed
who is our friend and who is our enemy.
A large amount of ammo and equipment was left by the Ukrainian troops.
- We got lists of who was in Redkodub, even with phone numbers.
Tank ammo, Vasilek ammo, 82 mm grenades, 120 mm grenades, RPG, 762, TURs.
We are almost on a frontline.
This is ammo left by the Ukrainian troops in Redkodub.
This is only a tenth part, a lot has been taken out already.
Mines, bullets, we are not supposed to have anything else.
Several Ural truckloads were taken out just by our brigade.
American, NATO helmets, goggles, about 40 bulletproof vests, good quality, neck protection, 4th generation.
- So you got your own humanitarian aid from Ukrainian volunteers?
- Canadian helmet with excellent quality. Comfortable. Thank you to Canadians and Ukrops for deliveries of supplies!
- Ukrainian army left us some excellent weapons, 120 mortar in great condition.
TUR – anti-tank rocket system
- Why does a mortar unit need TUR?
- We want to be prepared for any breakthrough. We have our own TUR,
RPG, muhi, now we are not just a mortar, but a mobil assault brigade!!!
“We are under fire from mortars, Grads, self-propelled howitzers,
small arms, and lots of other stuff. There is close combat in the
streets. 90% of the civilian population had left. Debaltsevo is not
fully surrounded, but all roads leading into it are under militant [sic]
fire. It is practically impossible to enter the city.
“Gusar,” an officer of the 128th Brigade (published on the Zerkalo Nedeli web site):
“We are facing the second Ilovaysk. It’s been five days since the
cauldron had closed. When the Donetsk Airport was taken, they lied to
people for five days that it’s under control. In reality it was the
other way around. Debaltsevo is under de-facto encirclement since five
days ago. There used to be a small path out, which they tried to use to
break out. They lost vehicles but broke out. The enemy occupied the
commanding heights along the road and has it covered with fire. People
are telling us nice stories that there are still communication routs,
some detours, dirt roads…There was a road like that, but as of yesterday
the convoy of five vehicles that left Debaltsevo yesterday lost all
five of them. Only seven guys made it out. We don’t know what happened
to the rest.”
Viktor Baloga, Politician [Transcarpathia oligarch, governor] (comment on facebook).
“Mr. President. You and I both know well that we no longer control
Debaltsevo. I’ll say more. Preventing the media from reporting the true
state of affairs will not help anyone. Our own HQ is lying worse than
the Russians. Moreover, the lies are obvious—there are so many people
there that it’s impossible to conceal the truth. My local guys are
there, lots of them. But since nobody is doing anything, they are losing
faith.
You know what needs to be done, both in the military and diplomatic
sense. In other words, either we cancel the ceasefire which had never
existed for the entire region, switch on the artillery and send weapons
and ammunition in. Or we decide to withdraw. The decision must be made
NOW!”
Deputy Commander of the 25th “Kievan Rus” Battalion
“The situation in Debaltsevo is critical, very bad. 90% of Debaltsevo
is under their control. It is in operational encirclement. All three
roads to the city are mined and under dense enemy fire. Our higher
command is gone. The Sector command and commander were here. But in
reality he abandoned this position and caused senseless losses. The
command is not in control of the situation here.”
Vitaliy Tilizhenko, volunteer (facebook)
“The Debaltsevo cauldron had closed! There is exfiltration by small
groups. Somebody is covering the withdrawal and holding positions,
gradually abandoning them and withdrawing. We have lost the police HQ
and the rail station in the morning. We lost 1/3 of our equipment at
Ilovaysk. We’ll lose 1/5th of all equipment, abandoning it
because people are more valuable, and there will be nothing to fight
with, as always. All withdrawing groups are falling into ambushes and
are losing men and equipment. The ambushes are growing stronger and more
fortified with every hour, and the percentage of people making it out
of the cauldron is dropping. They won’t say this on TV. Everything is
great there. Pete [Poroshenko] outplayed everyone, no need for martial
law, Europe is concerned, etc.”
Debaltsevo Update, morning 2/17
“The separatists [sic] fired from all kinds of weapons, from mortars
to SP howitzers and Uragan rocket launchers. Our guys held their
positions to the last. We had no communications with them. They started
to come out of the city at night, in a column of trucks and APCs. There
were many wounded in the column. Our intelligence was able to find a
relatively save path out. Our guys broke into groups. ‘McCloud’s’ group
went second. Tolya was behind them. They fell into an ambush. Lost lots
of equipment, but managed to break out. But that corridor is now
closed.”
Earlier today the Russian Spring reported that, according to the
information from the relatives of UAF troops located in the vicinity of
Debaltsevo, the chain of command has completely broken down and the
troops were issued orders to break out of the cauldron on their own.
However, several Ukrainian media immediately denied the reports,
claiming it was panic-mongering.
However, only an hour ago the acting spokesperson for the Ukrainian
General Staff Vladislav Seleznev confirmed this information during a
live interview on the TV channel 112, saying that DPR units were
assaulting the UAF base-camp at Debaltsevo, and that the headquarters
for all UAF forces there has been destroyed.
Oddly enough, Seleznev would not confirm that the Ukrainian forces are in a cauldron. But he did not deny it either.
J.Hawk’s Comment: So
it’s coming to an end. It’s only a matter of how many troops make it
out alive. But the loss of equipment, combined with earlier losses here
and everywhere, put into question the UAF’s ability to conduct
large-scale operations for a long time to come. The days of “Victory”
have come to an end. The days of “Treason” are only beginning…
Poroshenko and others were able to avoid reckoning for the earlier
Ilovaysk debacle apparently only by promising a rematch. They seem to
have lost that one too, and Round 3 does not seem in the cards. But
Round 2 is the only thing that kept all the different factions of the
very fragile “pro-European” junta together.
The situation in Debaltsevo may overturn all Minsk agreements During the entire Minsk negotiations
Ukrainian General staff disinformed Poroshenko about the situation in
Debaltsevo, and the most important trump card in the hands of the
President of Ukraine turned out to be a bluff. UAF was not able to crack
open the cauldron, and it has turned into the most sticking point of
negotiations, which may turn everything agreed upon in Minsk upside
down.
Poroshenko's perception of reality was
ultimately shattered by his propaganda trip to Kramatorsk in the company
of the chief of the General staff Muzhenko and a French
philosopher-Russophobe Bernard-Henri Levy. The President of Ukraine is a
man not too brave, very emotional and gullible. What was originally
conceived as "pumping" of Western public opinion with all the classic
moves of PR campaigns, turned into a psychological trap for himself. The Minister of Defense and head of
General staff, spurred by Turchynov, had promised the President to carry
out the operation, which will deblock Debaltsevo, and at the same time
"will pay back for Kramatorsk." When Poroshenko was already flying to
Minsk, he was convinced that it is enough to buy some time and the
attack on Logvinovo will end in complete victory, and he will get a new
starting position for negotiations. Throughout the entire night Poroshenko checked for updates from his General staff, but victory did not come. It hasn't come by morning, and a light bulb went off: something is not right, the cauldron does exist! Although he has already for 10 hours told respected people that it did not. One can only guess about the motives of
the security block of Ukraine for disorienting and misinforming their
Commander In Chief. The dominant conspiracy theory: Turchynov, actually
managing the security block, thus was buying time, following the general
American line. More down to earth and realistic version: it was a
traditional (of all times and all peoples) aspiration of parquet
generals to please and ward off accusations, glossing over reality.
Considering the general panic mood, combined with an unbridled
propaganda, it is much more likely than a transatlantic conspiracy about
Debaltsevo cauldron. The Ukrainian command also doesn't quite
understand what is happening. There is no connection with some units for more than a week,
and if there is, it boils down mainly to cries for help and heated
exchanges about "who is to blame". The chain of misinformation may well
start from the very bottom, gradually accumulating "meat". And to treat
any information in a favorable light is a very common mistake of bad
scouts and analysts. The past six months revealed much about the
strategists of the Ukrainian General staff.
All night from Wednesday to Thursday UAF
tried to exert pressure upon the entire front line. A formation of two
thousand from Svetlodarsk, which was assembled by UAF for almost a week,
went head on to the strongholds and minefields of NAF at Logvinovo, but
the militia has also strengthened this position in recent days. NAF
even managed to transfer significant reserves to Uglegorsk. As a result
an attack on Logvinovo from two sides (there was also an attack from
Debaltsevo, but very unconvincing) was stopped only by the morning. By
this moment Poroshenko got his own localized apocalypse. UAF also tried to attack directly from
Lugansk through the infamous village of Schastye, simultaneously firing
on the city from MLRS, which has not happened for six months. UAF
command, as it turned out later, believed that LPR units were too busy
near Debaltsevo and Bakhmut highway, that supposedly weakened defense of
the direct road to Lugansk (this is, again, another demonstration of
the low level of Ukrainian intelligence and strategic analysis).
Battalion "Azov" again imitated the offensive on the coastal route
through the neutral zone with the same results, as a few days ago. These people are generally more prone to simulate turbulent activity than to thoughtful action. Where UAF is not capable of real
activity, the pressure was carried out using MRLS and heavy weapons. For
example, Peski, Opytnoye, Donetsk itself, Gorlovka, Yenakievo,
Makeevka, Dokuchayevsk, and Dzerzhinsk were heavily shelled. Vladimir Putin, appearing to the press
after the talks, openly called on the Ukrainian side to allow troops in
Debaltsevo to surrender, or to arrange an organized exit. Poroshenko
wanted to turn the situation around Debaltsevo into his almost only
trump card, and in the end it became a monstrous failure. In fact,
regardless of what and in what language is written in the agreement of
the contact group, Debaltsevo cauldron may turn into a huge mass grave
in the next two days, because none of the demoralized generals (as
Poroshenko himself) will give an order to surrender. And to organize a
controlled exit of the Ukrainian troops from the encirclement in such a
short time is impossible. Soldiers are not concentrated in any one
place, but scattered in groups by checkpoints, many without
communications, without commanders and without ammo. Even if they can
scavenge some food at homesteads, no one will bring them ammo or medical
supplies. In the steppes there is dirt and slush, to detour the
positions of the militia on the road to Logvinovo through fields is
impossible, even if there was fuel. Militia doesn't even need to use
heavy weaponry, it is enough to gradually cut off one checkpoint from
the another.
After the defeat of Ukrainian attack on
Logvinovo a real danger emerged to get a second cauldron in Svetlodarsk,
which would trap this other "deblocking unit", that was built up over a
week. Another thing is that it is problematic to create a new
operational encirclement of a large formation in two days, and any
offensive action by NAF will now be associated with hysterical
information uproar in Ukraine, although UAF themselves have failed at
Uglegorsk, Logvinovo, and now of Svetlodarsk. Only officers and soldiers
can explain to the Ukrainian public that "a cauldron - is no good", but
if they start talking, it will seem more like a riot, and in a
hysterical atmosphere no one will listen. It is interesting, that a new offensive on Logvinovo was started by UAF immediately after the announcement of the results of Minsk talks,
sometime around noon. Commander Semen Semenchenko - one of the most
active "Twitter warriors" - said that the Ukrainians had already taken
Logvinovo and are "carrying out a sweep". In reality, the situation
remained exactly what it was, a new attack on "cauldron lid" is purely
political in nature. Thus, a small village Logvinovo on the highway Debaltsevo - Artemovsk turned for Poroshenko into a "new airport", only now these attacks also have a purely military, practical value. Poroshenko will be now learning about
the difficult reality with apparent difficulty and reluctance. For him
this reality, among other things, is dotted with various "red lines"
which he can't cross even verbally. The military situation had become a
taboo, although it remains a key part of the agenda. Even the questions of the political status can
be brushed off, creating "joint commissions" including representatives
from DPR and LPR, but the front line requires immediate decisions.
Sometimes everything depends not on big ideas and global plays, but
simply on the human qualities of a particular politician or officer. But
a commander in chief of the Ukrainian army, alas, got this position as a
figure of compromise and was controllable from the start. He, as a
person, may want to achieve something. To preserve peace in Europe, for
example. But it is beyond the range of circumstances and human power. Debaltsevo cauldron has evolved from a
military operation of a local value into the main factor of political
settlement. What will happen there in the next few days (or rather, what
steps will Kiev take to change the situation) will determine the
further balance of power. To demonstrate DPR and LPR in the face of
Europeans as "wild barbarians", and Russia as the aggressor will not
work anymore. You were given options - it's your choice. Even
Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky were brought to you for negotiations, and in
the end we got a vague paper signed by Kuchma, whose position at the
moment is - a retiree. "Ratified verbally" certain agreements - it's
such a fresh and new phenomenon in international diplomacy that all
textbooks should be rewritten.
To seriously discuss the details of
pulling the heavy artillery to some distance from the front line
(lines?) is pointless. As well as to discuss clause-by-clause an
agreement, from which there will not even be a memory left in a short
time. Yes, the Ukrainian troops will be pulled from the actual line, but
Ukraine's control over the border with Russia can only be restored
after a constitutional reform, guaranteeing new status for Donetsk and
Lugansk. That is, "money - in the morning, chairs - in the evening". A much more important question, is how
long can the state of "no peace, no war" hold. To predict it now is
extremely difficult, it all depends on many factors, including purely
private, invisible to the naked eye. Most of these factors are now in
Kiev. What will happen to public opinion, if the losses exceed all
reasonable limits? When and on what conditions will Debaltsevo
surrender? How hard will the Parliament groups fight against the bills
on the new status of Donbass, and how will Poroshenko cope with it?
There is a myriad of these key elements. Especially that in reality
there is no monitoring mechanism for the removal of heavy weapons from
either side. OSCE can not monitor the ceasefire: tanks and 80 mm mortars
will remain at the contact line, which do not fall under the category
of "heavy artillery", and in an urban setting - they are terrible,
deadly weapons. A mine doesn't break the asphalt, but bounces from it.
Shrapnel flies in all directions parallel to the ground, and people lose
their legs. All this looks like a new calm before a big war.
In my last column I provided reasons for believing that the deal will
fail. I saw a larger downside for Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk
republics because Putin and the break-away provinces will be blamed.
English is the world language, and this enables Washington and its
presstitutes to control the explanation.
The Saker and I are in agreement that the provisions of the peace
deal are ridiculous and cannot and will not be implemented. However,
The Saker sees an advantage for the republics in the provision, if
implemented, to remove heavy weapons from the conflict zones. The
Saker’s viewpoint is worth knowing. Whereas I have stressed that the
conflict could be ended by Russia accepting the republics’ requests for
unification with Russia and that the longer the conflict is drawn out
the more the West can demonize Putin and the break-away republics, Saker
sees the conflict ending this year with the economic, military, and
political collapse of Ukraine. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article40979.htm
Alexander Mercouris makes the point that one positive feature of the Minsk agreement,
which isn’t actually a deal or an agreement, is that Europe is now
involved and opposes Washington’s plan to escalate the military
conflict. He writes that the outcome in Ukraine depends on what the
Europeans do, a point with which I concur. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article40967.htm
It is difficult to believe that European governments are not aware
that the entire Ukraine crisis is a Washington orchestration. Now that
Europeans are beginning to realize the risk and recklessness in
Washington’s aggressive hostility toward Russia, Europeans might develop
an independent foreign policy, as opposed to lining up with Washington,
and cast off their vassalage. If this were to happen, Washington’s
hegemonic aggression would cease to have enablers. The Evil Empire would
begin its break-up, and the chances for peace would improve.
As Washington is not a partner to the Minsk peace deal, how can there
be peace when Washington has made policy decisions to escalate the
conflict and to use the conflict as a proxy war between the US and
Russia?
The Minsk agreement makes no reference to the announcement by Lt.
Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of US Army Europe, that Washington is sending
a battalion of US troops to Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces how to
fight against Russian and rebel forces. The training is scheduled to
begin in March, about two weeks from now. Gen. Hodges says that it is
very important to recognize that the Donetsk and Luhansk forces “are not
separatists, these are proxies for President Putin.”
How is there a peace deal when Washington has plans underway to send arms and
training to the US puppet government in Kiev?
Looking at the deal itself, it is set up to fail. The only parties to
the deal who had to sign it are the leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk
break-away republics. The other signers to the Minsk deal are an OSCE
representative which is the European group that is supposed to monitor
the withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides, a former Ukrainian
president Viktor Kuchma, and the Russian ambassador in Kiev. Neither
the German chancellor nor the French, Ukrainian, and Russian presidents
who brokered the deal had to sign it.
In other words, the governments of Germany, France, Ukraine, and
Russia do not appear to be empowered or required to enforce the
agreement. According to RT, “the declaration was not meant to be signed
by the leaders, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.” http://rt.com/news/231571-putin-minsk-ukraine-deal/
The terms of the agreement depend on actions of the Ukrainian
parliament and prime minister, neither of which are under Poroshenko’s
control, and Poroshenko himself is a figurehead under Washington’s
control. Moreover, the Ukrainian military does not control the Nazi
militias. As Washington and the right-wing elements in Ukraine want
conflict with Russia, peace cannot be forthcoming.
The agreement is nothing but a list of expectations that have no chance of occurring.
One expectation is that Ukraine and the republics will negotiate
terms for future local elections in the provinces that will bring them
back under Ukraine’s legal control. The day after the local elections,
but prior to the constitutional reform that provides the regions with
autonomy, Kiev takes control of the borders with Ukraine and between the
provinces. I read this as the total sell-out of the Donetsk and
Lugansk republics. Apparently, that is the way the leaders of the
republics see it as well, as Putin had to twist their arms in order to
get their signatures to the agreement.
Another expectation is that Ukraine will adopt legislation on
self-governance that would be acceptable to the republics and declare a
general amnesty for the republics’ leaders and military forces.
Negotiations between Kiev and the autonomous areas are to take place
that restore Kiev’s taxation of the autonomous areas and the provision
of social payments and banking services to the autonomous areas.
After a comprehensive constitutional reform in Ukraine guaranteeing
acceptable (and undefined) autonomy to the republics, Kiev will take
control over the provinces’ borders with Russia.
By the end of 2015 Kiev will implement comprehensive constitutional
reform that decentralizes the Ukrainian political system and provides
privileges of autonomy to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Both Putin and Poroshenko are both reported as stating that the main thing achieved is a ceasefire starting on February 15.
The ceasefire is of no benefit to the Donetsk and Lugansk republics
as they are prevailing in the conflict. Moreover, the deal requires the
republics’ forces to give up territory and to pull back to the borders
of last September and to eject fighters from France and other countries
who have come to the aid of the break-away republics. In other words,
the agreement erases all of Kiev’s losses from the conflict that Kiev
initiated.
All of the risks of the agreement are imposed on the break-away
republics and on Putin. The provinces are required to give up all their
gains while Washington trains and arms Ukrainian forces to attack the
provinces. The republics have to give up their security and trust Kiev
long before Kiev votes, assuming it ever does, autonomy for the
republics.
Moreover, if the one-sided terms of the Minsk agreement result in failure, Putin and the republics will be blamed.
Why would Putin make such a deal and force it on the republics? If
the deal becomes a Russian sell-out of the republics, it will hurt
Putin’s nationalist support within Russia and make it easier for
Washington to weaken Putin and perhaps achieve regime change. It looks
more like a surrender than a fair deal.
Perhaps Putin’s strategy is to give away every advantage in the
expectation that the deal will fail, and the Russian government can say
“we gave away the store and the deal still failed.”
Washington’s coup in Kiev and the attack on the Russian-speaking
Ukrainians in the east and south is part of Washington’s strategy to
reassert its uni-power position. Russia’s independent foreign policy
and Russia’s growing economic and political relationships with Europe
became problems for Washington. Washington is using Ukraine to attack
and to demonize Russia and its leader and to break-up Russia’s economic
and political relations with Europe. That is what the sanctions are
about. A peace deal in Ukraine on any terms other than Washington’s is
unacceptable to Washington. The only acceptable deal is a deal that is a
defeat for Russia.
It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the Russian government
made a strategic mistake when it did not accept the requests of the
break-away provinces to be united with Russia. The people in the
Donetsk and Lugansk provinces favored unification with the same massive
majorities that the people in Crimea showed. If the provinces had been
united with Russia, it would have been the end of the conflict. Neither
Ukraine nor Washington is going to attack Russian territory.
By failing to end the conflict by unification, Putin set himself up
as the punching bag for Western propaganda. The consequence is that
over the many months during which the conflict has been needlessly drawn
out, Putin has had his image and reputation in the West destroyed. He
is the “new Hitler.” He is “scheming to restore the Soviet Empire.”
“Russia ranks with ebola and the Islamist State as the three greatest
threats.” “RT is a terrorist organization like Boco Haram and the
Islamist State.” And so on and on. This CNN interview with Obama
conducted by Washington’s presstitute Fareed Zakaria shows the image of
Putin based entirely on lies that rules in the West.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Duu6IwW3sbw
Putin could be no more demonized even if the Russian military had invaded Ukraine,
conquered it, and reincorporated Ukraine in Russia of which Ukraine was
part for centuries prior to the Soviet collapse and Ukraine’s separation
from Russia at Washington’s insistence.
The Russian government might want to carefully consider whether
Moscow is helping Washington to achieve another victory in Ukraine.