RICHARD CHARNIN EXPLAINS THAT THE U.S. EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS ADJUSTED (FORCED) TO MATCH THE OFFICIAL TALLY BY THE END OF ELECTION DAY, AT WHICH TIME THE ACTUAL EXIT POLL RESULTS DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER, DURING THE 2004 ELECTION THE ACTUAL DATA WERE FOUND ON THE INTERNET ALL DAY LONG AND 22 MINUTES INTO THE NEXT DAY, AT WHICH POINT KERRY WAS LEADING BUSH BY 51-47%. THE UNADJUSTED 2004 EXIT POLLS WERE FINALLY RELEASED A YEAR AGO, REVEALING THAT KERRY HAD ACTUALLY WON BY 51.7% TO 47.0% WITH 13660 RESPONDENTS (MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE). THEN AS NOW THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA ABETED THE CRIME BY INSISTING ALL DAY LONG THAT "THE RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL."

---

 facebook                                                                            Richard Charnin's page

The exit pollster's MO never changes. In the recall, the pundits said it was "too close to call". I’m quite sure that Barrett was winning, but the media knew the fix was in so they had to keep it close. They knew the actual exit poll numbers would not see the light of day. But they sure called it quickly for Walker, didn't they?

The pollster’s have had plenty of experience in adjusting exit polls to match the vote count.

In 2004, preliminary state exit poll numbers were downloaded from the CNN website by Jonathan Simon. Kerry led by 50-48%. The state polls were already in the process of being matched to the recorded vote. But Bush was winning the vote count - a massive divergence from the exit polls.

We later learned that Kerry led the National Exit Poll from 4pm to midnight. At 4pm (8349 respondents) he led by 51-48%. At 730 pm (11027 respondents) by 51-48%. At 1222am (13047) by 51-47%. But we didn’t see these numbers. They were not for public view.

The next day, the CNN and NYT websites showed that Bush won the National Exit Poll (13660) by 51-48% - matching the recorded vote. How did the final 613 National Exit Poll respondents enable Bush to flip the vote? The exit pollsters never could answer that one. After all, the flip was mathematically impossible.

The unadjusted 2004 exit polls (state and national) were not released until about a year ago, long after the damage was done. And guess what? Kerry actually won the 13660 respondents! He had 7064 (51.7%), Bush 6414 (47.0%), Other 182 (1.3%).

Someday, probably in 2022, we’ll get to see the unadjusted recall exit poll numbers. In the meantime, here's the 2004 National Exit Poll Timeline that was “not meant for public viewing”.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

Blogger's Note: See preceding post for Richard Charnin's credentials and further information on the recent results of recalling Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin.