Wisconsin Recall: The adjusted Final Exit Poll was forced to match an unlikely recorded vote
Updated: June 20
Forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote
Was the election a prologue of the recall?
1) 81% of McCain and 71% of Obama voters turned out.
2) He needed to win 25% of Obama and 95% of McCain voters.
3) He needed 46% of new voters who did not vote in 2010. The 2012 exit poll indicates he had 45% and that new voters comprised 13% of the total vote.
2) Philosophy: 13% of liberals voted for Walker?
3) Party ID: 34% Democrat/ 35% Republican in a progressive state?
4) Labor: Just 62% voted for Barrett?
5) Obama preferred by 51-44%, yet Barrett lost the recall by 53.2-46.3%?
6) Barrett only got 81% of would-be Obama voters?
7)Turnout:47% of recall were returning Walker 2010 and 34% Barrett? That’s a 13% difference. In 2010 Walker “won” by 52.2-46.6%.
8) Urban vote: Barrett had just 62% in big cities?
P = 1.3E-34 = Binomdist(62,75,.5,false)^4
P = 1 in 8 billion trillion trillion
P = 7E-80 = Poisson (137, .05*300, false)
P = 1 in 1 million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion
P= 5E-115 = Poisson (134, .025*300, false)
P= 1 in 2 million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion
In the Wisconsin recall Exit Poll notes (following the crosstabs), the pollsters indicate there were 2547 exit poll respondents and that the margin of error (MoE) was +/-4%. Presumably, this includes a 30% cluster factor. But the MoE seems too high, considering the number of respondents.
In 1965, I graduated from Queens College (NY) with a BA in Mathematics. I later obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University and an MS in Operations Research from the Polytechnic Institute of NY. I started out as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer and then moved to Wall Street as a manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for several major investment banks. I consulted in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In 2004 l began posting weekly "Election Model" projections based on state and national polls. As "TruthIsAll", I have been posting election analysis to determine the True Vote ever since.
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