11/5/2012 2:01:00 PM
Hi all. Been sidelined by shoulder injury/surgery and a power outage all last week (the two really don’t go well together) though I’d already been on the sidelines regarding EI and politics in general. I wrote a very long explanation for a past EI donor that I’ll send to anyone who wants it. (I wanted to edit, abridge and post; but couldn’t do much of anything with one arm and no light.)
Still, I’ll chime in with my prediction. It has nothing to do with Nate Silver blather. Nor with citizen efforts, which, however valiant, face too many impossibly high hurdles. (I suspect that even if you could miraculously clear them, you’d simply wind up where you started because the system has you running around and jumping in circles.)
I’m fairly confident that Obama will win (or has already won) because despite all the hoopla about the contest having become a tossup, those who actually put more than hot air behind their predictions -- as well as those who might actually know -- have never wavered. As the polls have tightened, this confidence has increased. Obama had been a steady 2:1 favorite; now it’s about 4 to 1.
Actually, I would say his chances are even better than 80% because I suspect that the lengthening of odds over the last few days is attributable to money from insiders who really do know what’s going on. I can't think of any other reason; anyone have an alternative explanation?
From early on in his presidency, I’ve expected that Obama would be given a second term. He’s done everything that most of his higher ups could have wished for:
- Completing the greatest reverse Robin Hood transfer in history – $$ trillions to the world’s richest financial institutions -- that’s several years of Americans’ earnings -- past, present and future.
- “Reforming” a “healthcare” system already collapsing under its own weight -- 18% of GNP and growing -- by promising to make it still more bloated, and opening all remaining arteries for Big “Healthcare” to feast on (in return for pills, technology, forms and faxes).
- Increasing military spending despite US public and private insolvency and already spending more than the rest of the world combined; justifying ever increasing appropriations by maintaining a steady supply of wars and enemies in the military pipeline.
- Ignoring promises to address global warming and precipitous environmental degradation; despite the BP disaster/ warning, allowing ever riskier and destructive fossil fuel extraction.
- Eliminating not only fundamental civil liberties, but the right to life itself: through his leadership, the government may now target American citizens for death in secret and without trial:
- Secret U.S. Memo Made Legal Case to Kill a Citizen
- Taking Note: President Obama’s Kill List (May 29, 2012)
- Obama moves to make the War on Terror permanent (October 24, 2012)
With these achievements and more, Obama has earned a second term.
And as a small aside, they don’t even have to steal it for Obama.