Obama’s Stimulus Plan Is Failing, Not because the Solution Is More Tax Cuts (as Claimed by Republicans), but because the Stimulus Is Way INSUFFICIENT!

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), based largely on proposals by President Obama (but weakened by the centrists), was passed by Congress in its conference version on February 13, 2009 and signed into law by the President on February 17, 2009.

Paul Krugman, 2008 Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences, wrote on February 8th:

Even if the original Obama plan — around $800 billion in stimulus, with a substantial fraction of that total given over to ineffective tax cuts — had been enacted, it wouldn’t have been enough to fill the looming hole in the U.S. economy, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will amount to $2.9 trillion over the next three years.

Yet the centrists did their best to make the plan weaker and worse.

One of the best features of the original plan was aid to cash-strapped state governments, which would have provided a quick boost to the economy while preserving essential services. But the centrists insisted on a $40 billion cut in that spending.

On the eve of the House passing the conference version, Krugman summarized ARRA this way:

...In both the House and the Senate, the vast majority of Republicans rallied behind the idea that the appropriate response to the abject failure of the Bush administration’s tax cuts is more Bush-style tax cuts.

And the rhetorical response of conservatives to the stimulus plan — which will, it’s worth bearing in mind, cost substantially less than either the Bush administration’s $2 trillion in tax cuts or the $1 trillion and counting spent in Iraq — has bordered on the deranged.

It’s “generational theft,” said Senator John McCain, just a few days after voting for tax cuts that would, over the next decade, have cost about four times as much.

It’s “destroying my daughters’ future. It is like sitting there watching my house ransacked by a gang of thugs,” said Arnold Kling of the Cato Institute.

And the ugliness of the political debate matters because it raises doubts about the Obama administration’s ability to come back for more if, as seems likely, the stimulus bill proves inadequate.

For while Mr. Obama got more or less what he asked for, he almost certainly didn’t ask for enough. We’re probably facing the worst slump since the Great Depression. The Congressional Budget Office, not usually given to hyperbole, predicts that over the next three years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and what it will actually produce. And $800 billion, while it sounds like a lot of money, isn’t nearly enough to bridge that chasm.

Officially, the administration insists that the plan is adequate to the economy’s need. But few economists agree...

It is becoming more and more apparent every day that the stimulus provided by ARRA is, as Krugman has long predicted, frightfully inadequate. Today’s news that the unemployment rate came down a tic last month doesn’t begin to tell the full story. The graph at the top of this post (taken from the 19 June 2009 issue of Science magazine and modified to show today’s data) shows that since the passage of ARRA the unemployment rate has gotten WORSE relative to the “Projected Without Recovery Plan” ...and worst still when compared with Obama’s “Predicted With Recovery Plan.”

But the unemployment rate is only part of the picture. The other part has to do with the production and spending that comprise the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.). Two days ago, a column in the New York Times explained the situation with reference to the second graph at the top of this post:

Chump Change in the Latest G.D.P. Report
by Casey B. Mulligan

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate of real G.D.P. for the second quarter of 2009. Although some say it provides some of the first evidence of the stimulus law’s efficacy, a close inspection of the results shows that the government sector’s contribution to real G.D.P. growth so far has been trivial at best.

G.D.P. measures the total amount produced and spent in the nation during a particular time frame, like a year or a quarter of a year, indicating the country’s economic fitness. Real G.D.P. for the first quarter of 2009 was sharply lower than it was in 2008’s last quarter, which was itself sharply lower than the quarter before that. Thus, it came as a bit of a surprise that second-quarter real G.D.P. was not also sharply lower, but rather was pretty close to what it was in the first quarter.

Some advocates were quick to congratulate the stimulus law that was passed in February, claiming that “The marked improvement in this quarter relative to last is largely due to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).”

A closer inspection of the B.E.A.’s estimates gives no support for this claim. The chart [above] shows the change in the United States’ real G.D.P. from the first to the second quarter, broken into five expenditure categories: private domestic purchases, net exports, defense, federal nondefense purchases and state and local government purchases.

We were told that the stimulus law would invigorate the economy by spending on federal nondefense programs and helping state and local governments maintain and grow their public services. Stimulus advocates point to the fact that these spending categories indeed grew from the first to the second quarter, as shown in the chart by the fact that those two bars point upward. (Perhaps they believe that tax cuts and unemployment insurance have important effects, but these are not separate G.D.P. categories — they are included in whatever category the recipient spends them).

However, the chart also shows that these types of purchases were trivial. Real federal nondefense purchases increased by a mere $4 per American, while state and local government purchases increased by a mere $8 per person. Real defense purchases increased by $17 per person, which seems large when compared to the other government purchase categories, but is trivial by any other measure.

Another reason that we know that the stimulus bill had not yet delivered on its promise: employment plummeted from the first to the second quarter. We can continue to grade the stimulus law as the economy further evolves, but it finds no congratulations in the second quarter’s economic performance as measured.

--- Casey B. Mulligan is an economics professor at the University of Chicago.

Obama plan to create 3 ½ million jobs by late 2010; but we’re now 8 ½ million jobs in the hole, and the states are firing TEACHERS!

New York Times column

July 3, 2009

Op-Ed Columnist

That ’30s Show

By PAUL KRUGMAN

O.K., Thursday’s jobs report settles it. We’re going to need a bigger stimulus. But does the president know that?

Let’s do the math.

Since the recession began, the U.S. economy has lost 6 ½ million jobs — and as that grim employment report confirmed, it’s continuing to lose jobs at a rapid pace. Once you take into account the 100,000-plus new jobs that we need each month just to keep up with a growing population, we’re about 8 ½ million jobs in the hole.

And the deeper the hole gets, the harder it will be to dig ourselves out. The job figures weren’t the only bad news in Thursday’s report, which also showed wages stalling and possibly on the verge of outright decline. That’s a recipe for a descent into Japanese-style deflation, which is very difficult to reverse. Lost decade, anyone?

Wait — there’s more bad news: the fiscal crisis of the states. Unlike the federal government, states are required to run balanced budgets. And faced with a sharp drop in revenue, most states are preparing savage budget cuts, many of them at the expense of the most vulnerable. Aside from directly creating a great deal of misery, these cuts will depress the economy even further.

So what do we have to counter this scary prospect? We have the Obama stimulus plan, which aims to create 3 ½ million jobs by late next year. That’s much better than nothing, but it’s not remotely enough. And there doesn’t seem to be much else going on. Do you remember the administration’s plan to sharply reduce the rate of foreclosures, or its plan to get the banks lending again by taking toxic assets off their balance sheets? Neither do I.

All of this is depressingly familiar to anyone who has studied economic policy in the 1930s. Once again a Democratic president has pushed through job-creation policies that will mitigate the slump but aren’t aggressive enough to produce a full recovery. Once again much of the stimulus at the federal level is being undone by budget retrenchment at the state and local level.

So have we failed to learn from history, and are we, therefore, doomed to repeat it? Not necessarily — but it’s up to the president and his economic team to ensure that things are different this time. President Obama and his officials need to ramp up their efforts, starting with a plan to make the stimulus bigger.

Just to be clear, I’m well aware of how difficult it will be to get such a plan enacted.

There won’t be any cooperation from Republican leaders, who have settled on a strategy of total opposition, unconstrained by facts or logic. Indeed, these leaders responded to the latest job numbers by proclaiming the failure of the Obama economic plan. That’s ludicrous, of course. The administration warned from the beginning that it would be several quarters before the plan had any major positive effects. But that didn’t stop the chairman of the Republican Study Committee from issuing a statement demanding: “Where are the jobs?”

It’s also not clear whether the administration will get much help from Senate “centrists,” who partially eviscerated the original stimulus plan by demanding cuts in aid to state and local governments — aid that, as we’re now seeing, was desperately needed. I’d like to think that some of these centrists are feeling remorse, but if they are, I haven’t seen any evidence to that effect.

And as an economist, I’d add that many members of my profession are playing a distinctly unhelpful role.

It has been a rude shock to see so many economists with good reputations recycling old fallacies — like the claim that any rise in government spending automatically displaces an equal amount of private spending, even when there is mass unemployment — and lending their names to grossly exaggerated claims about the evils of short-run budget deficits. (Right now the risks associated with additional debt are much less than the risks associated with failing to give the economy adequate support.)

Also, as in the 1930s, the opponents of action are peddling scare stories about inflation even as deflation looms.

So getting another round of stimulus will be difficult. But it’s essential.

Obama administration economists understand the stakes. Indeed, just a few weeks ago, Christina Romer, the chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers, published an article on the “lessons of 1937” — the year that F.D.R. gave in to the deficit and inflation hawks, with disastrous consequences both for the economy and for his political agenda.

What I don’t know is whether the administration has faced up to the inadequacy of what it has done so far.

So here’s my message to the president: You need to get both your economic team and your political people working on additional stimulus, now. Because if you don’t, you’ll soon be facing your own personal 1937.

Choice of Two Roads

Eponymous painting by Viktor Mikhailovich Vasnetsov in the Russian Museum in St. Petersburg.

Choice of Two Roads

Thanks to Wall Street bankers gone bonkers the entire world’s economy is in a tail spin ...which will not be fully ironed out until the last of $500 trillion worth of credit default swaps are unwound. But no one talks much about CDSs at the moment, because now is the time to do something that will at least pull the U.S. economy out of its present nose dive. Indeed, when an aircraft is in such dire straits the pilots don’t get into an argument as to whether the wings will come off if they pull back too hard on the stick...

In fact, bickering pilots in an out-of-control airplane is the perfect metaphor for the way Congress is delaying Obama’s economic stimulus plan. Republicans (and some Democrats) contend that “all deficits are bad” and therefore that any increased government spending to stimulate the private-sector economy should be offset by cuts in ongoing government programs ...like science. That’s right, science! Take a look at all the national science programs that Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Susan Collins (R-ME) propose to strip from the Senate American Reinvestment and Recovery Act as a part of a $77.9 billion deficit reduction! And they propose this at a time when it has been projected that under present conditions in just 5 years 90% of all scientists and engineers will live in Asia! What are they thinking?

Even cave man didn’t take the road of eating his seed corn during the long ice-age winters ...or homo sapiens sapiens would already be extinct!

So exactly what road SHOULD Obama and the Congress be taking? Well, the best answer that anyone could hope for would be the recommendation of a Nobel-Prize-winning economist who is untainted by having worked either on Wall Street or at the Fed while these bodies were planting the seeds of the present economic melt-down. Of course, that economist is Paul Krugman, and fortunately he has written many columns on this very subject. Here is an earlier one, and here is his column from today’s New York Times ...from which I take the following excerpts:

Just to be clear, I’m not arguing that trying to reduce the budget deficit is always bad for private investment. You can make a reasonable case that Bill Clinton’s fiscal restraint in the 1990s helped fuel the great U.S. investment boom of that decade, which in turn helped cause a resurgence in productivity growth.

What made fiscal austerity such a bad idea both in Roosevelt’s America and in 1990s Japan were special circumstances: in both cases the government pulled back in the face of a liquidity trap, a situation in which the monetary authority had cut interest rates as far as it could, yet the economy was still operating far below capacity.

And we’re in the same kind of trap today — which is why deficit worries are misplaced.

One more thing: Fiscal expansion will be even better for America’s future if a large part of the expansion takes the form of public investment — of building roads, repairing bridges and developing new technologies, all of which make the nation richer in the long run.

Apropos of the absolute urgency for Congress to pass an un-watered-down stimulus bill ASAP, I call your attention to an excellent column by Joan Walsh on what Obama should be now telling the public...but hasn’t quite yet.

N.B. Here is a wonderful 11-min TV interview with (1) the whistleblower who tried to expose Madoff's $50-billion ponzi scheme to the hear-no-evil-see-no-evil-speak-no-evil SEC and (2) Paul Krugman regarding the current subject matter.