Will President Trump Take The Blame When the Stock Markets Crash?
Stock
markets continue to reach record high levels, but it’s only a matter of
time before they crash back to earth. When they do, there will be a lot
of finger pointing at those deemed to be responsible for the crash.
Given the current political climate, President Trump will undoubtedly
come in for criticism. But will that be a fair criticism?
President
Trump is certainly taking the credit for the hot stock markets, and his
supporters view this as market approval for his allegedly pro-growth
economic policies. Trump’s critics will undoubtedly seize on something
to criticize him when stock markets crash, no matter how flimsy their
case may be. All of this obscures the fact that Presidents just don’t
have that much of an effect on the economy, at least not in the short
term.
For
one thing, Congress is responsible for passing the federal budget, one
of the biggest drains on the economy. Sure, the President can submit a
budget proposal, but ultimately it’s Congress that determines just how
many trillions of dollars are siphoned away from taxpayers and shuttled
into non-productive endeavors.
Where
Presidents are most responsible for affecting the economy is in their
selection of Federal Reserve Board members, particularly when they pick a
chairman. The chairman ultimately determines the direction of monetary
policy, which has far more effect on the economy than anything else the
federal government does.
This
stock market bubble has been years in the making, a natural consequence
of the trillions of dollars that the Federal Reserve System has been
pumping into financial markets. It’s not a surprise either, at least to
those of us who adhere to Austrian economics and understand that the
Fed’s response to the last financial crisis would result in another
larger bubble.
President
Trump has a chance to change things for the better at the Fed if he
appoints a chairman who will upend the Fed’s traditionally loose conduct
of monetary policy, although that doesn’t appear likely. But no matter
who he picks now, the wheels for the next crisis were set in motion
years ago. It was the monetary policy of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen
that will bring about the next financial crisis, so the blame should
fall squarely on the shoulders of Presidents Bush and Obama who
appointed them.
Nothing
President Trump or his appointees do now will stop the next financial
crisis, they can only react to it. How they react should certainly be
subject to critique, but placing the blame on President Trump for
something that he inherited will be a classic case of playing politics –
attacking the President for something he didn’t do, while continuing to
obscure the Federal Reserve’s role in monetary malfeasance.
- Ron Paul
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